Whalesbook
Toh bhai log, Groww ka stock toh raftaar pakad raha hai, par ab sabki nazar Q4 results par hai jo April 20, 2026 ko announce hone wale hain. Billionbrains Garage Ventures Ltd. ki Board of Directors meeting isi din hogi, jismein Q4 aur poore saal ke FY26 results approve honge. Meeting ke baad 4:00 PM IST par company ek earnings call bhi rakhegi jahan performance par discussion hoga.
Stock window April 1, 2026 se band hai aur results ke 48 ghante baad open hogi, SEBI ke insider trading rules follow karte hue. Halanki, stock ne haal hi mein ₹214.36 ka 52-week high touch kiya tha April 16, 2026 ko, par Friday ko yeh 1.79% girkar ₹199.35 par band hua, jabki Nifty 50 0.65% upar tha. Yeh sab uske pehle sirf paanch sessions mein 26% se zyada ki tezi ke baad hua.
Groww ka market cap toh bhaari hai, lagbhag ₹1.27 trillion as of April 17, 2026. Valuation metrics bhi thode complicated hain. P/E ratio pichhle 12 mahine ka 71-73x ke aas paas hai, kuch reports mein toh 57.7x se lekar 90.5x tak bhi dikha rahe hain. Yeh bada valuation sawalon mein hai.
Jo main chinta hai woh ye hai ki Q3 FY26 mein profit after tax ₹547 crore ho gaya, jo pichhle saal Q3 FY25 mein ₹757 crore tha. Matlab revenue toh badh raha hai (₹1,261 crore vs ₹1,004 crore year-on-year), aur Adjusted EBITDA bhi badha (₹741 crore vs ₹598 crore), par profit kam ho raha hai. Ye gap investor ke liye bada sawal hai ki kya company ka business model itne high valuation ko sustain kar paayega.
Groww ne apne IPO price ₹112 ko lagbhag double kar diya hai April 2026 tak, aur pichhle saal mein lagbhag 51.79% return diya hai. India ke brokerage market mein yeh number 1 hai, lagbhag 28% active clients ke saath. Par fintech sector par RBI ka pressure badh raha hai, data security aur consumer protection ko lekar naye rules aa rahe hain. Competition bhi kam nahi hai, Zerodha jaisi companies ki valuation ₹70,000 crore se upar hai, aur Angel One ka market cap ₹29,454 Cr hai. Upar se, Indian equity market bhi 2026 ki shuruaat mein thoda correction mein tha, jisse growth stories se zyada earnings-backed companies par focus aa gaya hai. Ye sab Groww jaise high-valuation stocks ke liye challenging ho sakta hai.
Groww ke liye sabse bada risk uska premium valuation hai, jo ki sustained high growth par depend karta hai. Kuch analysts bol rahe hain ki short-term mein capital market activity kam hone se transaction volume aur revenue par asar pad sakta hai. IPO lock-in period expire hone ke baad kuch bade investors selling kar sakte hain. Aur wo Q3 mein jo profit dip aaya tha, woh margin sustainability par sawaal uthata hai, jab market mein 120+ players hain aur price wars ka risk hai. Waise bhi, Groww ka profitability rivals jaise Zerodha se kam hai, jo kam users se zyada earnings karte hain. Fintech sector ka future RBI ke strict regulations ko navigate karne par bhi depend karta hai.
Analysts toh abhi bhi positive hain. Bank of America Securities ne 'Buy' rating ke saath coverage shuru ki hai aur ₹235 ka target diya hai, unko ummeed hai ki FY26 se FY28 tak revenue 30% CAGR se badhega aur margins bhi improve honge (67% aur 52%). JPMorgan ne 'Overweight' rating aur ₹210 ka target diya hai, Groww ko ek attractive consumer internet platform maante hue. Haan, kuch analysts ke average targets current levels se thoda niche bhi ishara kar rahe hain. Bas, management ko earnings call par yeh dikhana hoga ki kaise woh sustained profits aur better margins laa sakte hain apne bade valuation ko justify karne ke liye.