Fractal Analytics IPO: Valuation ka 'Bawaal'! Kya Ye ₹900 Ka Share Aapke Liye Hai?

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AuthorAnanya Iyer|Published at:
Fractal Analytics IPO: Valuation ka 'Bawaal'! Kya Ye ₹900 Ka Share Aapke Liye Hai?
Overview

Arre bhai, Fractal Analytics ka naya IPO toh aa gaya, par market mein iski **valuation** ko lekar kaafi hungama hai. IPO price rakha tha ₹900, jo lagbhag **79x** P/E ke hisaab se kaafi 'expensive' lag raha hai. Retail investors toh thode door rahe, par Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) ne sab sambhal liya.

Valuation ka 'Mehenga' Drama

Fractal Analytics jab market mein list hua, toh sabse pehla sawaal toh yahi utha ki bhai yeh company itni expensive kyun hai. IPO ka price ₹900 rakha gaya tha, matlab P/E ratio 79x ke aas paas. Yeh number dekh kar bade bade experts bhi hairaan hain! Geojit Financial Services ne toh bataya ki FY25 ke liye P/E 70x aur FY26 ke liye 109x hai, matlab valuation bahut zyada hai. Listing ke baad bhi share thoda neeche ₹876 par khula, par FY25 ke hisaab se P/E ab bhi lagbhag 65.6x hai. Latest figures ke mutabik toh yeh 118.68x tak pahunch gaya hai! Iska matlab hai ki company se future mein zabardast growth ki umeed hai.

QIBs Ne Bachaya IPO Ka Laaj

Jab subscription numbers aaye, toh dekha ki retail investors toh thode hesitant the. Lekin akhir mein, 4.4 times QIBs ne is issue ko subscribe kiya, jiski wajah se total subscription 2.81 times ho gaya. Kuch bade investors jaise Sandip Sabharwal ne toh yeh bhi sawaal uthaya ki fund managers kyun itne 'obnoxiously priced' IPOs ko support kar rahe hain. Yeh QIBs ka support accha hai, par yeh dikhata hai ki institutional buyers aur baaki market ke beech price ko lekar alag soch hai.

Clients Ka AI Insourcing Risk

Ek aur bada risk jo is company ke liye hai, woh hai clients ka AI insourcing. Matlab, bade bade companies ab khud hi apni AI capabilities develop kar rahe hain, aur baahar ke service providers par kam bharosa kar rahe hain. Isse Fractal jaise companies ke liye market kam ho sakta hai aur profit margins par bhi pressure aa sakta hai. Competition toh hai hi, par ab toh clients khud hi competitors banne lage hain.

Market Trends Aur Peers Se Comparison

Bade tech IPOs toh bahut aaye hain India mein, aur sabhi ne high valuations par list kiya hai. Par agar purani history dekho, toh Zomato jaise companies bhi listing ke baad struggle karte hain. Indian market mein tech companies ko high multiples milte hain, par ab log sirf achi growth nahi, balki consistent profitability bhi dekh rahe hain. TCS aur Infosys jaise giants bhi AI mein invest kar rahe hain, par unka model aur valuation alag hai.

Execution Ka Pressure Hai Bhai!

Sabse bada dar toh yahi hai ki kya Fractal Analytics apne high growth expectations ko poora kar payega aur saath mein profitability bhi maintain kar payega. Revenue toh badh raha hai, par FY23-25 mein Profit After Tax (PAT) ka CAGR sirf 6.53% tha. Aur toh aur, FY24 mein toh ESOP expenses ki wajah se Loss bhi report hua tha. SPTulsian wale toh keh rahe hain ki company ka revenue growth 18-20% aur PAT margins single digit mein hain, jo Palantir jaise global peers se bahut kam hai. Itni high valuation par listing ka matlab hai ki agar execution mein koi gadbad hui, ya clients ne kharch kam kar diya, ya competition badh gaya, toh stock price tezi se neeche aa sakta hai. IPO mein QIBs ka support bhi yahi batata hai ki listing price par sab log convincing nahi the.

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