Whalesbook
Toh boss, Elara Capital ko lagta hai ki badhti fuel prices ka saamna karne mein Eternal, Swiggy se zyada behtar hai. Iska sabse bada reason Eternal ka premium customer base hai, jo price badhne par bhi zyada complain nahi karte. Is wajah se Eternal apni platform fees, delivery charges aur handling fees badha sakta hai, jo ki food delivery aur quick commerce dono services mein hota hai.
Eternal ka business scale bhi Swiggy se bada hai aur uski advertising revenue bhi acchi hai, jo usko Swiggy se zyada stability deti hai. Brokers ka kehna hai ki Swiggy ka customer base thoda price sensitive hai aur quick commerce mein unki profitability kam hai, toh un par fuel hike ka zyada asar pad sakta hai.
Yaad hai na, petrol ₹4 per litre badha hai? Isse delivery costs badhti hain. Reports ke according, FY27 tak Eternal 2.7 billion orders aur Swiggy 1.4 billion orders handle kar sakte hain.
Ek order par delivery cost aam taur par ₹35-50 quick commerce ke liye aur ₹55-60 food delivery ke liye hoti hai. Blended average dekhein toh Eternal ka lagbhag ₹45 aur Swiggy ka ₹55 per order hai. Agar fuel price 4% badhti hai, toh per order ₹0.44 ka impact aata hai. Agar fuel prices ₹10 litre badhi toh yeh impact ₹1-1.2 tak ho sakta hai.
Experts ka kehna hai ki yeh extra cost customers, platforms aur delivery partners mein bant jayegi. Par agar fuel prices bahut zyada badhi (₹10/litre increase scenario mein), toh Eternal ke FY27 ke estimated EBITDA mein 4-5% tak ki girawat aa sakti hai, jabki Swiggy ke liye yeh 10-12% tak ho sakti hai. Swiggy ke liye toh yeh situation aur difficult hogi kyuki unki profitability cushion kam hai.
Lekin sabse bada risk yeh hai ki fuel inflation overall consumption ko affect kare. Agar fuel prices badhi toh log kam kharch karenge, jisse orders kam ho sakte hain. Chote restaurants aur D2C brands bhi marketing kam kar sakte hain kyuki unke logistics aur packaging costs badh jayenge.