Whalesbook
Aage kya hai? Growth hai ya sirf badhte kharche?
Eternal ke investors ke liye March quarter kaafi interesting hone wala hai. Company ka revenue sequential basis par around 11% badhne ka estimate hai. Iske peeche ka main reason hai Blinkit ka super-fast expansion aur sath hi sath food delivery business mein bhi profit margins ka sudhar. Analysts ka kehna hai ki company ab pehle se zyada efficient ho gayi hai, matlab growth mein invest karne ke bawajood bhi financial results acche aane chahiye.
Quick Commerce Ki Jung: Blinkit ka dum, par profit ka sawaal?
Yeh quick commerce wala field toh bhai ekdum jung ka maidan bana hua hai. Indian quick commerce market 2026 tak lagbhag USD 3.65 billion tak pahunch jayega, aur 2031 tak 12.74% ke annual growth rate se badhega. Is race mein Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart aur Zepto jaise bade players hain. FY25 tak Blinkit ka market share lagbhag 45% hai. Lekin itni tezi se expand karne mein profit ka raasta mushkil hai. Blinkit ne Q4 FY25 mein record 294 naye stores jode hain aur December 2025 tak 2,000 stores ka target hai. Wahi, Swiggy Instamart bhi 1,000 se zyada dark stores chala raha hai.
Food Delivery Ka Scene Aur Profit Pressure
Food delivery side par revenue growth toh acchi hai, lekin asli picture profit ki alag hai. Saare market ne 2023-24 mein US$13.4 billion ka gross output generate kiya. Lekin, Swiggy ka hi dekh lo, quick commerce mein kharch hone ki wajah se unka operating loss double ho gaya. Eternal ke food delivery segment ka revenue FY25 mein 21% YoY badha, aur Net Order Value (NOV) mein 20% ka rise dekha gaya. Lekin, Morgan Stanley ne EBITDA estimates kam kar diye hain, kyunki profit utni tezi se nahi badh raha jitni expectation thi.
Stock Ka Valuation Aur Q4 Ki Asli Kahani
Analysts ka Zomato par opinion mila-jula hai, par zyada tar positive hain. Unka 12-month price target ₹255 se ₹290 ke beech mein hai. Lekin bhai, stock ka valuation bahut high hai. April 2026 tak trailing P/E ratio lagbhag 541 ke aas paas hai. Matlab, future growth toh stock mein pehle se hi include hai, toh execution bahut important hoga. Asal mein jo Blinkit ka aggressive expansion chal raha hai na, woh revenue toh badha raha hai, par profit par pressure dal raha hai. Competition itni zabardast hai ki discounts aur rapid scaling ke chakkar mein margins tight ho rahe hain. Operational costs bhi high hain. Eternal ka Q4 FY25 net profit ₹39 crore raha, jo ki 78% kam hai pichle saal se, jabki revenue 64% badha tha! Iska reason hai total expenses mein 68% ka badhotari, jisme Blinkit ka kharcha bhi shamil hai. Food delivery mein profit margin thoda theek hua hai YoY, par Q4 FY25 mein Q/Q halka sa gira hai. Aur haan, 1000 se upar ka P/E ratio ka matlab hai ki stock premium par trade kar raha hai, aur koi bhi choti si galti ya growth mein kami stock ko gira sakti hai.
Aage Ka Outlook: Blinkit Ki Growth Ya Sustainable Profit?
Ab aage kya? Eternal ka future is baat par depend karta hai ki woh Blinkit ke expansion ko sustainable profit ke saath kaise balance karte hain. Analysts ko lagta hai ki dono segments mein growth jari rahegi, par Blinkit ka profit margin hi sab kuch decide karega. Analyst rating abhi bhi 'Buy' hai, aur average 12-month target ₹359.06 ke aas paas hai. Investors ko ab Blinkit ke store expansion targets aur profitability milestones par nazar rakhni hogi, aur saath hi yeh bhi dekhna hoga ki Eternal apne core food delivery business se kitni effective earning kar pata hai.