Whalesbook
Growth Aces, Par Chip Costs Ki Maar!
CG Power ke latest results mein ek interesting picture dikh rahi hai. Ek side pe unka core business, matlab industrial aur power systems, mast chal raha hai aur revenue 25% increase hua hai. Company ka order backlog bhi ₹17,107 Crore se zyada ka hai, jo future ke liye achha signal hai.
Lekin, asar ho raha hai chip manufacturing yaani semiconductor business mein kiye ja rahe heavy investments ka. Company OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) facilities bana rahi hai aur chip design mein bhi paisa laga rahi hai. Is sab mein ₹38 Crore ka karcha hua hai jisse quarterly margins kam ho gaye.
Valuation Ka Game: Sabse Mehnga?
Is investment aur growth ke outlook ki wajah se, CG Power ka valuation abhi aasmaan chhoo raha hai. Company ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple 117.46 ke aas-paas hai, jo ki competitors se kaafi zyada hai. Dixon Technologies, jo electronics manufacturing karti hai, woh 41-50 P/E pe trade ho rahi hai, aur Tata Elxsi ka P/E 34-42 range mein hai. Matlab, investors ko CG Power se semiconductor business se bahut bade returns ki umeed hai, isliye market cap ab ₹1.30 lakh Crore ho gaya hai.
India Ki Semiconductor Dreams Aur CG Power
CG Power ka semiconductor mein utarna India ke liye bhi bohot bada step hai. India ka semiconductor market 2030 tak $100 billion tak pahunch sakta hai, government bhi isko support kar rahi hai. Company Gujarat ke Sanand mein ek OSAT facility bana rahi hai jo roz 0.5 million units bana sakti hai. Aur late 2026 tak ek doosri facility roz 14.5 million units banane ki capacity rakhegi. Renesas se acquire kiye gaye RF business, ab Axiro ke naam se, ne FY26 mein ₹500 Crore ka revenue bhi diya hai.
Analysts jaise Motilal Oswal aur Emkay bhi stock par 'BUY' rating de rahe hain aur target price ₹955 tak de rahe hain. Unka kehna hai ki OSAT business se losses FY28 se kam hone lagenge jaise capacity badhegi.
Risk Factor: Kya Valuation Justified Hai?
Sabse badi chinta yahi hai ki kya company ka 117x ka P/E multiple justified hai? Ye sab semiconductor strategy ke successful execution par depend karta hai. ₹38 Crore ka margin hit dikha raha hai ki abhi short term mein ye venture bohot kharchila hai. Do OSAT facilities itni jaldi banana ek bada challenge hai. Plus, India mein semiconductor ke liye zaruri raw materials, jaise specialty gases aur wafers, abhi bhi bahar se 90% se zyada import hote hain.
Lekin achhi baat yeh hai ki FY28 ke baad se OSAT division ke losses kam hone ki ummeed hai. Jab tak ye semiconductor ventures profit mein nahi aate, tab tak CG Power ke core business ka ₹17,000 Crore se zyada ka order book support karta rahega. Stock ka future isi baat par depend karega ki company kitni jaldi apne investments ko profit mein badalti hai aur is competition mein apni jagah bana paati hai.