Palantir (PLTR) Share: AI Rally Ke Beech Michael Burry Phir Bigde! Valuation Ka Kya Hoga?

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AuthorIshaan Verma|Published at:
Palantir (PLTR) Share: AI Rally Ke Beech Michael Burry Phir Bigde! Valuation Ka Kya Hoga?
Overview

Dekho bhai log, woh famous investor Michael Burry ne Palantir (PLTR) par apna attack phir se shuru kar diya hai. AI boom ki wajah se jo stock kaafi bhaga tha na, uski valuation aur company ki profitability par usne badi fikar jatayi hai. Burry ka kehna hai ki yeh stock gir sakta hai, aur usne iske peeche kuch zabardast reasons bhi diye hain!

Burry ne company par "covert smear campaigns" chalane ka bhi ilzaam lagaya hai aur stock ke technical chart ko dekh kar toh lagta hai ki yeh girne wala hai.

Yeh sab tab ho raha hai jab Palantir AI ke josh mein kaafi uchhal maar raha tha aur uska market cap $313 billion se zyada ho gaya hai. Lekin Burry ko company ke financial reporting aur purani profitability par shaq hai, aur unka maanana hai ki current high valuations shayad tikne wali nahi hain, khas kar jab tech sector mein AI-driven growth par sawaal uth rahe hain.

Toh asli masla kya hai? Palantir (PLTR) ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio abhi lagbhag 208.59 TTM chal raha hai, jo market ke average 38.08 se kaafi zyada hai. Yeh premium valuation isliye hai kyunki AI capabilities ko lekar logon mein bohat josh hai, jisne revenue growth ko pichhle quarter mein 70% tak pahunchaya. Lekin Burry ka kehna hai ki yeh hype asli fundamental issues ko chhupa raha hai aur kuch accounting practices se figures inflated lag rahe hain.

Unki technical analysis mein toh ek classic "Head & Shoulders" pattern dikh raha hai, jo ek big trend reversal ka sign hai. Unhone support levels $80 ke aas paas bataye hain aur agar stock gira toh $50 se $60 ke beech aa sakta hai. Matlab current price $131.41 se 54% tak ki girawat ho sakti hai! Aur haan, Burry ne $50 strike price wale put options bhi khareede hain jo 2027 mein expire honge, matlab unka bearish bet bilkul clear hai.

Jab hum Palantir ki valuation ko competitors jaise Snowflake (SNOW) aur CrowdStrike (CRWD) se compare karte hain, toh pata chalta hai ki yeh sabhi high-growth, high-valuation stocks hain. Snowflake aur CrowdStrike bhi expensive hain, lekin kai baar unka P/E negative rehta hai matlab woh abhi bhi profit mein nahi hain. Wahi, Datadog (DDOG) ka P/E toh 403.87 se 422.69 tak hai! Isse lagta hai ki poore tech sector mein future growth potential ko current earnings se zyada importance mil rahi hai.

Analyst log bhi Palantir ko lekar mix hain. Zyadatar log ise 'Moderate Buy' keh rahe hain aur average target price $190-$192 de rahe hain, lekin ek analyst ne toh $70 ka low target bhi diya hai. Matlab sabki rai ek nahi hai.

Burry ka attack sirf technicals tak nahi hai, woh company ke fundamentals par bhi sawaal utha rahe hain. Unka kehna hai ki company lagbhag 20 saal se consistently profitable nahi rahi hai aur growth ke liye hamesha naye deals chahiye hote hain, jaise ek "shark" ko. Unhone highlight kiya ki company ne pandemic ke dauran devalued SPACs mein $450 million se zyada invest kar diye the, jo ki ek warning sign hai.

CEO Alex Karp ko mili stock-based compensation bhi IPO ke aas paas $1 billion se zyada thi, jo company ke bade kharchon ko dikhati hai. Burry ka sabse bada aarop accounting practices par hai. Unka kehna hai ki IPO se pehle R&D expenses ko shayad aise classify kiya gaya tha jisse reported figures inflated lagte the. Woh sawaal utha rahe hain ki gross margins kaise present kiye ja rahe hain, kyunki agar forward-deployed engineers ke kharchon ko reclassify kiya jaaye toh reported margins "collapse" ho jayenge aur yeh "SaaS/software charade" ka parda faash ho jayega.

Unhone ek naya metric bhi bataya hai: "B/S ratio" (billionaires to revenue), jo revenue ke comparison mein excessive stock-based compensation ko dikhata hai. Yeh Palantir jaise company ke liye ek khatarnak ishara hai, jo hamesha consistent profit kamane ke liye struggle karta raha hai. Haalanki, FY2025 ke liye Palantir ne positive GAAP net income dikhaya hai, lekin Burry ka analysis yeh implies karta hai ki yeh figures asli operational efficiency ko nahi dikhate.

Is sab bearish scene ke bawajood, Palantir ne 2026 ke liye revenue outlook kaafi optimistic diya hai, jo $7.182 billion se $7.198 billion ke beech rahne ki ummeed hai, matlab 61% ka zabardast growth. Company ka AIP platform bhi growth ka bada reason bana hai, jisme US commercial revenue Q4 2025 mein 137% tak badha hai.

Analysts bhi abhi bhi stock mein upside dekh rahe hain. Lekin Burry ke lagatar warnings aur market ke valuation excess ko lekar sensitive hone ke karan, Palantir ka safar aage jaakar kaafi volatile reh sakta hai. Investors ko market optimism aur fundamental scrutiny ke beech balance banana hoga.

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