Whalesbook
AI ka poora game ab badal raha hai. NVIDIA ne toh $5 Trillion valuation ko touch bhi kiya hai, matlab AI ki demand kitni zabardast hai! Par ab baat sirf ek chip maker tak seemit nahi rahi. Ab Alphabet (jiska Google hai), Microsoft aur Amazon bhi race mein aa gaye hain, sab apne-apne tareeke se AI infrastructure bana rahe hain.
NVIDIA abhi bhi AI accelerators mein sabse aage hai, par competition kadi ho rahi hai. Jabki Alphabet pehle NVIDIA ka bada customer tha, ab woh bhi apna custom chip, jisko Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) kehte hain, le aaya hai jo NVIDIA ko takkar de raha hai, khaas kar inference tasks ke liye. Google Cloud ki revenue AI services ki wajah se kaafi badhi hai, aur unka backlog lagbhag $460 billion tak pahunch gaya hai. Ye dikhata hai ki ab log sirf profit nahi, balki AI infrastructure, data aur tools par companies ka control dekh rahe hain.
Microsoft Azure aur Amazon Web Services (AWS) bhi tezi se badh rahe hain. Microsoft ka AI business toh saal-dar-saal 123% grow kar raha hai, lagbhag $37 billion annual revenue run rate par, aur Azure ~30% ke aas paas grow ho raha hai. Amazon AWS ki AI revenue toh teen saal mein $15 billion se upar chali gayi hai, aur unke Bedrock platform par kharcha 170% har quarter badh raha hai!
Valuation ki baat karein toh, Alphabet lagbhag $4.81 Trillion par hai aur pichhle saal 150% se zyada bhaga hai. Microsoft $3.1 Trillion par hai. Amazon $2.8 Trillion par khada hai. Amazon ka custom silicon business toh saal ka $20 billion cross kar chuka hai aur triple-digit growth dikha raha hai. Yahan tak ki Apple bhi ab apna AI research par revenue ka 10% se zyada kharch kar raha hai, race mein shaamil hone ke liye.
Par bhai, sab kuch itna smooth nahi hai. NVIDIA ka ~90% AI chip market share ab khatre mein hai kyunki ye bade cloud providers apne custom chips bana rahe hain. Isse NVIDIA ki future growth kam ho sakti hai aur profit margins bhi gir sakte hain. Aur ye AI infrastructure banane mein jo itna bada upfront investment lag raha hai, usmein bhi risk hai. Agar bond yields badh gaye ya cloud providers ne kharch kam kar diya toh dikkat ho sakti hai. Data use aur competition ko lekar regulatory checks bhi chal rahe hain. Memory chips ki kami se bhi cost badh rahi hai, jisse Apple jaise companies ke profits par asar pad sakta hai. Aur sabse bada risk ye hai ki market ka itna zyada reliance bas kuch bade tech stocks par hai, agar sentiment badla toh sab gir sakta hai.
Analysts filhaal zyada chinta nahi kar rahe, par nazar rakhe hue hain. Alphabet ko log long-term mein strong maante hain. Microsoft ka AI business bhi steady lag raha hai. AI infrastructure ki demand toh badhti hi rahegi, par ab sawal ye hai ki companies apne AI investments se paisa kaise bana paayengi. Jo companies ye clear dikha payengi, wohi sabse zyada chamkenge.