Whalesbook
Arre yaar, market mein aaj kya hua! Avalon Technologies ka share Friday, May 8 ko lagbhag 9.83% bhaga aur ₹1,379 ka naya 52-week high bana diya. Ye tab hua jab Nifty50 index 0.57% neeche tha. Is toofani tezi ka reason FY26 ke Q4 aur poore saal ke financial results hain. Company ne Q4 FY26 mein PAT (profit after tax) 69.5% badha kar ₹41 crore kiya aur revenue 40% badha kar ₹480 crore kiya. Poore FY26 ke liye, PAT 78% badhkar ₹113 crore ho gaya aur revenue 46% badhkar ₹1,603 crore ho gaya. Lagbhag 8 million shares trade hue, matlab investors ka full support hai.
Lekin, sab kuch itna bhi simple nahi hai. Jabki market stock ko lift kar raha hai, brokerage houses thodi cautious hain. Antique Stock Broking ne apna price target ₹922 se badha kar ₹1,213 kar diya hai, phir bhi 'Hold' rating hi di hai. Ye target current market price se lagbhag 12% neeche hai. Brokerage ka kehna hai ki company ka order book ₹2,190 crore ka hai, jo 25% saal-dar-saal badha hai aur semiconductor manufacturing mein entry bhi positive hai, lekin stock ka valuation (P/E ratio) abhi bhi bahut zyada lag raha hai.
Dekho, P/E ratio ki baat karein toh April 2026 ke end mein ye 72.24 tha, jo 10-year median se 11% kam hai, par phir bhi historical range aur competitors ke comparison mein high hai. May 2026 mein TTM P/E 68.3 ke aas paas tha, ya May 7, 2026 ko 80.03 tha. 3-year average P/E 100 ke aas paas raha hai.
Analysts ko sabse zyada tension iske valuation se hi hai. Itna high P/E matlab aap current earnings ke liye zyada paisa de rahe ho. Agar growth thoda bhi slow hua toh problem ho sakti hai. Competition ki baat karein toh Dixon Technologies sabse aage hai apne premium valuations ke saath, jabki Amber Enterprises thoda reasonable hai. Semiconductor manufacturing mein entry ek risky move ho sakta hai kyunki ye bahut paisa mangta hai aur execution bhi mushkil hai. Q4 mein EBITDA margins bhi 21 basis points kam hue, haan EBITDA total mein grow hua hai.
Par management kaafi confident hai. Unka target hai ki FY29 tak revenue double ho jayega. Ye unka lagataar saatvan quarter hai jisme sequential improvement dikha hai. Analysts ne bhi FY27/FY28 ke liye EPS estimates badha diye hain. Semiconductor manufacturing wala step long-term mein fayda de sakta hai.