Whalesbook
Asal mein, AI computing power ki demand itni badh gayi hai na ki AWS ki sales lagatar 28% upar chal padi hai, jo ki mid-2022 ke baad sabse fast growth hai. First quarter mein sales $37.6 billion tak pahunch gayi! Aur future contracts ka backlog toh 93% badhkar $364 billion ho gaya. Amazon ke CEO Andy Jassy ka kehna hai ki unke custom AI chips se $225 billion tak ki revenue commitment mil chuki hai.
Par is sab growth ke liye company ne kharcha bhi toh kiya hai bhai! Pichhle 12 mahino mein property aur equipment par lagbhag $151 billion kharch kar diye, jo pichhle saal se $57.9 billion zyada hai. Ye sab data centers banane ke liye chal raha hai. Aur 2026 mein toh aur bhi $200 billion kharch karne ka plan hai, jo ki 56% increase hai! Competition bhi toh tough ho raha hai, jisme Microsoft Azure 40% aur Google Cloud 63% se badh rahe hain.
Ab yahan ata hai asli twist. Itna revenue hone ke bawajood, free cash flow ka toh baje baj gaye hain. Pichhle saal jahan $25.9 billion free cash flow tha, wahi ab bas $1.2 billion reh gaya hai! Ye sab $59.3 billion zyada kiye gaye kharch ki wajah se hua hai, jo mostly AI data centers ke liye hai. Is vajah se company ko apna long-term debt bhi badhana pada hai.
Amazon apne custom chips jaise Graviton aur Trainium par bada daav laga raha hai. Jassy ka kehna hai ki in chips se saalana $20 billion se zyada ki revenue aa rahi hai aur ye triple digit mein grow kar rahi hai. Agar ye standalone beche, toh $50 billion tak jaa sakti hai. OpenAI jaise bade AI players ne $100 billion se zyada ki AWS services ke liye commitment di hai, toh ye sab investment waste nahi jayegi.
Ab stock price ki baat karein toh, 33-36x ke P/E ratio par chal raha hai, jo kuch analysts ko rivals ke comparison mein zyada lag raha hai. Itna paisa infrastructure par kharch karne se investors free cash flow ko lekar thoda chintit hain. Pata hai na, March 2026 mein jab $200 billion capex ka announcement hua tha, tab bhi stock gira tha. Is investment se AI mein leadership toh milegi, par filhaal ye ek bada financial burden lag raha hai. Plus, Q1 ka net income ka bada hissa Anthropic mein investment se aaya, na ki core business se.
Analysts abhi bhi buy rating de rahe hain aur AWS ki growth expect kar rahe hain. Amazon ne Q2 ke liye 16%-19% tak ki sales growth forecast ki hai. Par ab sabki nazar isi par rahegi ki company apna infrastructure kharch aur free cash flow generation kaise balance karti hai, jabki competitors bhi piche nahi hain.