Whalesbook
AI ka naya generation market mein kaise panic laya?
Sabse pehle samjho ki ye hua kyun? Asal mein, AI mein itni tezi se naye developments ho rahe hain, especially jab se Anthropic jaise startups ne industry-changing tools dikhaye hain. Ye tools ab har field, chahe woh legal ho ya financial research, sabko impact karne wale hain. Isse investors mein darr baith gaya ki ye to puri companies ko hi khatam kar denge.
Market Mein Hahakaar Aur Girte Shares
Is darr ka natija ye hua ki tech sector mein ekdum se sell-off shuru ho gaya. Kaam ki companies jaise Expedia Group Inc., Salesforce Inc., aur London Stock Exchange Group Plc ke shares neeche gir gaye. Week ke end tak thoda recovery dikhi, but iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) bhi ekdum se 12% gir gaya tha. Daniel Newman, jo Futurum Group ke CEO hain, unka kehna hai ki ye 'new reality' hai aur AI ka impact roz badhega. Thomson Reuters Corp. ke Canadian shares toh ek hi week mein 20% toot gaye, ye unka sabse bada fall hai record mein. Morningstar Inc. ka bhi haal dekhne wala tha, unka 2009 ke baad sabse bura trading week raha. Aur to aur, HubSpot Inc., Atlassian Corp., aur Zscaler Inc. jaise stocks bhi 16% se zyada gire. Poore software, financial services, aur asset management sector ki collectively $611 billion ki market cap hawa ho gayi last week.
Valuation Ki Race Mein Sab Piche, Naye Levels Par
Pehle log AI mein fayda uthane wali companies mein paisa laga rahe the, jaise semiconductor companies. Unka index 2022 ke end se 3 guna tak badh gaya tha. Lekin ab jab AI tools itni jaldi develop ho rahe hain, companies jaise Alphabet Inc.'s Google aur OpenAI se, toh disruption abhi se dikhne laga hai. Google ke naye AI tool ne toh video-game stocks ko bhi hila diya. Aur upar se, bade software companies ke results bhi aache nahi aaye the.
Bade Players Ke Results Bhi Bure, Dabav Badha
Jab Microsoft Corp. ne apne cloud revenue growth mein kami dikhayi, toh ek hi din mein unki market value $357 billion kam ho gayi! ServiceNow Inc. 10% aur SAP SE 15% neeche aaye unke results ke baad. KeyBanc ke software analyst Jackson Ader ne kaha, 'It was the stalwarts that failed us' - matlab jo bade players hain wahi gir gaye toh sector par bharosa kaise karein?
Bear Case Aur Oversold Territory Mein Stock
Traditional software companies toh pehle se hi pressure mein thi, par AI ke darr ne unki girawat aur tez kar di. Salesforce apne December 2024 ke high se 48% neeche aa gaya hai, aur ServiceNow January 2025 ke peak se 57% down hai. Goldman Sachs ke data ke mutabik, software sabse zyada becha gaya sector raha hai is saal. Hedge funds ka exposure bhi record low par hai. Market itna gir gaya hai ki IGV ETF ka RSI 15 tak pahunch gaya tha (jo 15 saal mein sabse low hai), abhi 24 ke aas paas hai. Valuations bhi bohot gir gayi hain, Goldman Sachs ke tracker mein ye 21 guna earnings tak aa gaya hai, jabki late 2021 mein ye 100 guna se bhi upar tha. Salesforce toh ab sirf 14 guna future earnings par trade ho raha hai, jo average 46 guna se bohot kam hai.
Aage Kya? Analysts Ko Resilience Dikhi
Par is saare darr ke beech, Wall Street analysts kaafi positive hain. Unko lagta hai ki S&P 500 mein software aur services companies ki earnings 2026 mein 19% badhegi, jo pehle ke estimate 16% se zyada hai. Boston Partners ke Michael Mullaney ko nahi lagta ki companies fundamental damage se guzrengi, aur profits aache reh sakte hain. Iska matlab ye ho sakta hai ki market abhi overreact kar raha hai, aur quality stocks buy karne ka achha mauka mil sakta hai.