Whalesbook
Budget Ki Surprise Dhamaka: STT Hike Ne Kiya Market Ko Down!
Budget 2026 mein ek bada surprise aaya jab government ne derivatives par Securities Transaction Tax (STT) badha diya. Yeh log speculation kam karne aur revenue badhane ke liye kar rahe hain. Is announcement ke baad, February 1, 2026 ko benchmark indices mein lagbhag 2% ki giraavat dekhne ko mili. FIIs toh pehle se hi 2025 aur 2026 ki shuruat mein selling kar rahe the, aur is STT hike ne investors ka mood aur kharab kar diya.
FII Outflows Aur STT Ka Double Attack
Jab Budget aaya, toh equity futures par STT 0.02% se badha kar 0.05% ho gaya aur options par 0.10%/0.125% se 0.15% kar diya gaya. Isse trading karne walon ka cost seedha badh gaya, khas kar jo log high-frequency trading karte hain. Isi wajah se February 1 ko Sensex 1,546 points neeche gira aur Nifty 50 bhi lagbhag 495 points tut gaya. Analysts keh rahe hain ki yeh bas speculative activity ko control karne ka tareeka hai, zyada revenue ka source nahi.
MOFS Ki Strategy: Ghabrao Mat, Ye Stocks Dekho!
Market mein chal rahe is tension aur FII ki selling ke beech, Motilal Oswal (MOFS) ne apni list nikali hai ki kis stocks mein paisa lagana faydemand ho sakta hai. Woh aise companies par focus kar rahe hain jinki growth dikh rahi hai aur jo domestic growth drivers ka fayda utha sakti hain.
Nifty ke Top Picks:
- State Bank of India
- Titan Company
- Mahindra & Mahindra
- Infosys
- Zomato (Eternal)
Non-Nifty 50 Picks:
- Dixon Technologies (India)
- Indian Hotels Company
- Groww (Billionbrains Garage Ventures)
- TVS Motor Company
- Radico Khaitan
Sector Focus Aur Valuation Ki Kahani
MOFS ne Autos, Diversified Financials, Industrials & EMS, Consumer Discretionary, aur Technology sectors par 'Overweight' stance rakha hai, kyuki yahan growth achhi dikh rahi hai. Wahi, Oil & Gas aur Metals sector par woh 'Underweight' hain. Unka kehna hai ki IT sector mein AI ki wajah se recovery ho sakti hai, auto sector mein bhi solid growth hai aur banking mein bhi profit badh raha hai.
Valuation dekhein toh kuch stocks apne historical average se kaafi upar chal rahe hain, jaise Bharat Electronics (207% premium), Grasim Industries (61% premium), Hindalco Industries (43% premium), Power Grid Corporation of India (35% premium), aur ONGC (33% premium). Dusri taraf, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (41% discount), Bharti Airtel (30% discount), Trent (27% discount), Dr Reddy’s Labs (23% discount), aur Maruti Suzuki India (20% discount) discount par mil rahe hain.
Kuch khaas picks ki baat karein toh, State Bank of India ka P/E lagbhag 11.2-11.96 ke aas-paas hai aur market cap ₹9.26 lakh crore ke kareeb hai. Infosys ka P/E 22.5-23.98 range mein hai aur market cap ₹6.6-6.7 lakh crore hai. Zomato toh bhai, uska P/E 293 se lekar 1100 tak jaa sakta hai, aur market cap February 2026 ke start mein ₹2.6 lakh crore ke aas-paas tha.
Future Outlook: Kya Hoga Aage?
MOFS ko lagta hai ki FY26 aur FY27 mein earnings stable ho jayegi aur recovery dikhegi, isliye woh large-cap companies mein investment badha rahe hain. Woh Indian equity market ko positive nazar se dekhte hain kyuki government policies support kar rahi hain aur structural growth factors mazboot hain. FII outflows ki chinta abhi hai, par umeed hai ki yeh stabilize ho jayega. India-EU Free Trade Agreement bhi long-term mein ek positive catalyst ban sakta hai. Domestic demand ke chalte Indian market mein resilience hai, jo global uncertainties ke beech bhi support dega.