Whalesbook
Market Mein Ajeeb Halchal Kyun?
Global tension se market mein dar ka mahaul hai, crude oil ke prices bhi upar hain. Aur isi wajah se, Nifty index ko higher levels par selling pressure mila aur Tuesday ko closing 24,000 ke neeche hui. Jo 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50-DEMA) hai, jo lagbhag 24,197 par hai, woh ek bada resistance bana. Index shuru mein thoda upar gaya tha, par phir gir gaya aur 97 points loss mein 23,995 par band hua. Yeh dikhata hai ki bade market mein caution hai, aur neeche 23,800 ke aas-paas support mil sakta hai.
Stock Ke Kamaal!
Lekin bhai, sab stocks aise nahi hain. Kuch toh dhamaal macha rahe hain! HDFC Securities ne bataya hai ki Oil India ne toh ek badhiya breakout dikhaya hai symmetrical triangle pattern se, aur volumes bhi badhe hain. Ab yeh apne key moving averages ke upar trade kar raha hai. Aur Reliance Industries (RIL)? RIL ne toh monthly chart par Hammer pattern banaya hai aur 20-day aur 50-day EMA ko bhi cross kar gaya hai. Volumes toh yahan bhi badhe hain, matlab investors phir se interested dikh rahe hain.
Valuation Aur Economy Ka Scene
Agar valuations ki baat karein, toh Oil India ka P/E ratio lagbhag 13.28 hai, jo ONGC (9.38 P/E) se thoda mehenga hai. RIL toh aur bhi aage hai, iska P/E ratio 21.0 se 22.66 ke beech hai, jo Indian Oil ya Bharat Petroleum (jinhe 6 se kam P/E hai) se kaafi zyada hai. Waise, India ki economy toh mast grow karne wali hai, GDP 2026 tak 6.4% se 7.7% aur inflation 2.2% se 4.4% rehne ka andaza hai.
Risks Bhi Hain Bhai!
Par bhai, risk bhi kam nahi hai. West Asia mein chal rahi tensions se crude prices aur supply chain mein gadbad ho sakti hai. Isse inflation badh sakta hai aur duniya bhar mein interest rates bhi upar ja sakte hain. Oil India ka valuation ONGC se zyada hai, aur RIL bhi mehenga hai. History mein RIL par kuch allegations bhi lagte rahe hain.
Aage Kya?
Analysts keh rahe hain ki Nifty abhi ek range mein phas gaya hai. Jab tak yeh 24,300-24,400 ke upar nahi nikalta, tab tak bada rally mushkil hai. Neeche 23,800 ka support hai. Toh, aise mein smart investors ko technically strong stocks par nazar rakhni chahiye, par global risks ko bhi dhyan mein rakho.