Whalesbook
Paisa Kahan Ja Raha Hai? Growth ya Exit?
Dekho, India ka primary market toh record tod raha hai, but ek bohot bada funda shift hua hai. Jab se 2015 se 2025 tak ke 1,700 se zyada IPOs ka analysis kiya hai na, pata chala hai ki ab jo IPO se paisa aata hai, uska 63% toh Offer for Sale (OFS) se aa raha hai. Iska matlab pata hai kya hai? Ki majority paisa sidha promoters, early investors aur PE firms ko mil raha hai jo apna stake bech rahe hain. Yeh woh paisa hai jo company ke expansion ya debt kam karne mein lagna chahiye tha, par ab woh bahar jaa raha hai. Yeh decade pehle se bohot alag hai jab IPOs ka main motive business grow karna hota tha.
Listing Pop vs. Long Term Ka Sach
IPO ka structure uske baad ke performance ko bohot affect karta hai. Jo IPOs fresh issue se heavy hote hain (matlab paisa company mein lagta hai), unmein listing pe 6.7% tak ka gain milta hai, par woh ek mahine mein negative 8% aur ek saal baad toh negative 13% tak ho jata hai. Dusri taraf, OFS wale IPOs mein listing pe 11% tak ka gain ho sakta hai, jo initial mein achha lagta hai. Lekin yahan bhi, ek mahine baad returns negative 4% aur ek saal baad lagbhag negative 10% tak gir jaate hain. Matlab, listing ka excitement long term mein nahi tikta, khaas kar jab motive hi exit ho.
Oversubscription Ka Jhooth
Aajkal toh IPOs 200 times tak subscribe ho rahe hain! Bahut log isse company ki quality samajh lete hain. Par bhai, ye sirf market mein bahut paisa hai aur log bhag rahe hain uska sign hai, yeh company ke fundamentals ya sahi valuation ka proof nahi hai. Kuch IPOs toh listing pe 90% tak bhagte hain, but baad mein 7% tak gir bhi jaate hain. Iske peeche ka reason aksar market sentiment aur paisa hota hai, na ki deep fundamental analysis.
Market Cycles Aur Indian Liquidity Ka Kamaal
IPO activity mostly market ke trends par depend karti hai. Jab equity market mast upar ja raha hota hai, toh promoters ko apna stake bechne ka accha mauka milta hai. Aur yeh sab ho raha hai mainly Indian investors ke paison se, jaise mutual funds aur retail traders. Foreign investors ka role ab pehle se kam ho gaya hai, jiski wajah se market itne zyada listings ko absorb kar paa raha hai.
Sectoral Shift: Economy Ke Saath Badlav
Companies bhi change ho rahi hain. 2015 se 2019 ke beech financial services, tech aur consumer-linked companies zyada IPO la rahi thi. Lekin ab 2021 ke baad, industrial, manufacturing aur infrastructure sector ki companies zyada aa rahi hain. Yeh India ke economic growth aur infrastructure par focus ko dikhata hai.
Investor Ka Dilemma: Exit Ka Game?
Asli problem retail investors ke liye ye hai ki OFS wale IPOs badh gaye hain. Listing gains toh aate hain, par paisa business mein lagne ki jagah promoter ki jeb mein ja raha hai. Isse interests align nahi ho rahe. Regulator SEBI bhi March 2025 mein kuch reforms la raha hai taaki sab kuch transparent ho. India ab duniya mein sabse zyada IPOs laane wala market ban gaya hai. Lekin bhai, listing ke 'pop' ke baad kya hoga, yeh dekhna important hai. Kya paisa business build kar raha hai ya exit ke liye use ho raha hai, yehi sabse bada sawal hai.