Whalesbook
Pehle toh sab India India karte the, par bhai, jab market girta hai ya kuch global gadbad hoti hai, toh sirf ek hi market pe depend rehna risky ho jata hai. Experts keh rahe hain ki ab diversification sirf risk kam karne ke liye nahi, balki strategy ka main part ban gaya hai. Jismein sirf alag-alag countries mein nahi, balki pure world ke growth engines ko pakadne ki baat hai. Jaise Marcellus ke Saurabh Mukherjea ne bataya, isse returns bhi stable rehte hain aur kisi ek economy ke upar neeche hone ka zyada impact nahi padta.
Ab innovation ki baat karein toh bhai, asal growth toh kahi aur hi ho rahi hai. PGIM India ke Abhishek Tiwari ne bataya ki India stable growth de sakta hai, par AI aur semiconductors jaisi jo groundbreaking cheezein hain, woh toh global level par ho rahi hain. Toh ab focus AI, semiconductors, energy transition, aur advanced healthcare jaise themes par hai. Fund managers bhi isi tarah ke funds la rahe hain, jaise PGIM India Global Equity Opportunities Fund of Fund, jo investors ko international companies mein invest karne ka mauka deta hai for long-term growth.
Aur ye sirf baatein nahi hain, numbers bhi yahi keh rahe hain. 2025 se 2026 tak dekho toh US markets mein bhari tezi thi, jabki Indian stocks utne nahi bhage. MSCI India index ne USD mein sirf 4% return diya, jabki MSCI Emerging Markets Index 20% se zyada uchhal gaya! Iska reason tha India mein high stock valuations, dheema earnings growth, aur foreign investors ka paisa nikalna. Global paisa toh technology aur AI mein jaa raha tha. Aise mein kuch fund houses ko bhi dikkat ho rahi hai. Jaise Marcellus ke 'Consistent Compounders' ne 8.37% return diya, par unka AUM (Assets Under Management) bhi kam hua. PGIM India ka Global Equity Opportunities FoF, jo 2013 mein launch hua tha, uske paas February 2026 tak ₹1,511 Cr AUM hai aur launch se ab tak 9.41% ka total return diya hai.
Aur haan, global investing mein ek bada factor hai currency ka. Jab US jaise deshon mein inflation aur interest rates badhte hain, toh paisa emerging markets se nikal kar wahan chala jata hai. Isse Indian Rupee (INR) kamzor hota hai. September 2024 ke baad se INR 8% se zyada gira hai, 90 ke paar chala gaya US Dollar ke against! Isse foreign investors ke gains bhi kam ho gaye. Currency hedging bhi mehnga pad raha hai, isliye Indian bonds, dollar bonds ke saamne kam attractive lag rahe hain. Haan, agar US Fed late 2025 mein rates kam karta hai, toh liquidity badh sakti hai aur INR stable ho sakta hai.
Global invest karne ke liye alag rules bhi hain bhai. Indian companies ko FEMA aur RBI guidelines follow karni padti hain, investment limits aur approvals ka dhyan rakhna hota hai. Waise toh India se bahar investment FY2024-25 mein 67.74% badhkar $41.6 billion ho gaya hai, jo dikhata hai ki log serious hain. Individual investors ke liye LRS (Liberalised Remittance Scheme) se direct investing easy ho gayi hai, par currency swings aur tax rules ko samajhna zaroori hai.
Lekin bhai, sab kuch itna bhi smooth nahi hai. India aur global markets dono mein high valuations ka risk hai, khaas kar AI sectors mein. Kabhi bhi correction aa sakta hai. India ka stock market toh waise bhi dusre emerging markets se mehnga milta hai. Aur Middle East jaisi jagahon par conflicts se energy supplies disturb hoti hai, jisse volatility aur inflation badh sakti hai. Log bhi kabhi kabhi fundamentals ki jagah price movements dekh kar react karte hain, jo ki galat hai. Foreign investors ke liye INR ka kamzor hona ek bada concern hai, aur RBI bhi zyada intervention nahi kar raha.
Toh overall experts ka kehna hai ki global diversification ka trend continue karega. India ki economy toh badhti rahegi, par stock market ko global peers ke saath pace maintain karne mein thodi dikkat ho sakti hai, high valuations ki wajah se. Experts ne disciplined investing aur long-term view par zor diya hai. Focus short-term price chasing se hat kar businesses aur thematic ideas ko samajhne par aa raha hai, kyunki market volatility toh ab normal hi rahegi.