Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo aur behno, market mein aaj zabardast tezi aayi hai! Iske peeche do bade reasons hain - pehla, duniya mein geopolitical tensions thode kam hue hain aur dusra, crude oil prices bhi $100 se neeche aa gaye hain. In sab cheezon ne investors ka confidence badha diya aur pura Indian market, khaas kar mid aur small-cap indices ne to kamaal hi kar diya.
IMF ne bhi India ki FY27 GDP growth forecast ko badha kar 6.5% kar diya hai, jisse economy par bharosa aur badh gaya hai. Lekin, ek bada sawaal yeh hai ki DIIs itna maal kyu bech rahe hain, isse market ki asli health par sawal uth rahe hain.
Aisi tezi kyu aayi?
Is week ending April 18, 2026 tak, Middle East se tension kam hone ki khabar aur low oil prices ne investors ki mood ko acha kar diya. Nifty Midcap 100 Index aur Nifty Smallcap Index dono ne 3.5% se 4.3% tak ka gain dikhaya. Nifty 50 1.25% badhkar 24,353.55 aur BSE Sensex 1.21% badhkar 78,493.54 par pahunch gaye. Poore BSE-listed firms ki market cap ₹14 lakh crore se zyada badh gayi aur ab ye lagbhag $5 trillion ho gayi hai.
Par ye sab hua hai DIIs ke ₹6,285.91 crore ke net selling ke bawajood! FIIs ne thodi kam selling ki hai, sirf ₹251.47 crore outflow hua hai. Yahan se pata chalta hai ki alag alag investors alag alag strategies bana rahe hain.
Sectors ki performance
Almost sabhi sectors mein tezi thi, Nifty Capital Markets index ne sabse zyada 7% ka jump mara. Nifty Defence index bhi 6.2% badha, aur Energy, Metal indices 4% se upar gaye. Mazda Auto sector thoda peeche reh gaya, jo ki aam taur par nahi hota jab market mein itni tezi ho.
Mid aur small-cap mein Suzlon Energy jaise stocks ne bhi dhyaan kheencha, kyunki un par debt lagbhag zero hai aur revenue growth bhi acchi hai. Lekin haan, bahut se chote stocks ab apne average P/E multiples se kaafi upar trade kar rahe hain, matlab price toh badh raha hai par fundamentals utne strong nahi lag rahe.
Future ka outlook aur valuation ki chinta
IMF ki 6.5% GDP growth forecast India ki economic strength dikhati hai, khaas kar jab duniya bhar mein slowdown chal raha hai. Ye sab factors mid aur small caps ke liye achhe hain, par valuations ek badi chinta ban gayi hai. Nifty Midcap 100 ka P/E lagbhag 36.3 hai aur Nifty Smallcap 100 ka 28.56, jo average se kaafi zyada hain. India ka valuation emerging markets ke muqable mein thoda premium hai.
DIIs ki selling chinta
DIIs ki lagataar selling, jo pichhle hafte ₹6,285.91 crore thi, market ke liye ek badi chinta hai. FIIs ki selling kam hui hai par woh abhi bhi net sellers hain, jo dikhata hai ki global investors bharat se thoda cautiously capital hata rahe hain aur shayad dusre tech markets mein invest kar rahe hain.
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) ke valuation risks bhi nazar aa rahe hain. Iska P/E ratio 132.16 hai, jo industry average 28.1x se kaafi zyada hai, aur iska Return on Equity (ROE) bhi sirf 2.29% hai. Agar growth expectations kam hui toh stock gir sakta hai. Mid aur small-caps mein bhi agar earnings slowdown hui ya wapas geopolitical issues bade, toh yeh stocks gir sakte hain, kyunki FIIs bhi is saal net sellers rahe hain.
Auto sector ka peeche rehna bhi dikhata hai ki market ka fayda sabko barabar nahi mil raha.
Ab aage kya?
Ab aage kya? Nifty ko 24,600-24,800 ke level par resistance aur 24,100-24,200 ke aas paas support mil sakta hai. Investors abhi Middle East ki updates, crude oil prices aur foreign capital flows par nazar rakhenge. Q4 earnings aur FY27 management guidance bhi sectors ki direction decide karegi. Analysts abhi cautiously optimistic hain aur selective stock picking par zor de rahe hain.