Whalesbook
Toh kya chal raha hai market mein? Ek taraf toh Nifty jaise bade indices history bana rahe hain, pichhle 2,229 dinon se bull run pe dikh rahe hain, aur corrections bhi bahot halki ho rahi hain, bas -4.6% ki average giravat. Par bhai, asli khel toh andar se chal raha hai. Kai saare shares toh seedha zameen pe patakh gaye hain, 339 stocks toh apne high se 20% neeche hain, aur 74 toh 50% se bhi zyada gire hue hain!
Is sabke peeche sabse bada 'hero' hai hamare Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs). Saale ne saal mein ₹20 lakh crore se zyada ka paisa laga diya hai, jisse ₹1.92 lakh crore ke Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) outflows ko easily absorb kar liya gaya hai. Ye domestic paisa hi hai jo market ko girne se bacha raha hai.
Par ek cheez kharab hai, woh hai valuations. India ka market ab bahot 'expensive' ho gaya hai. Nifty 50 ka PE ratio 20.9x se 24x chal raha hai, jo ki historical average se kaafi zyada hai aur dusre emerging markets jaise MSCI Emerging Markets Index (jo sirf 13x pe hai) se bhi bahut upar. Hamare mahine ₹32,000 crore ki SIPs se jo paisa aa raha hai, woh is gap ko fill kar raha hai, lekin ye kab tak chalega, kehna mushkil hai.
Abhi kuch risks bhi hain. Global tensions, $100 per barrel se upar jaata crude oil, ye sab market ko hila sakta hai. J.P. Morgan ke analysts keh rahe hain ki market thoda sideways chal sakta hai, par 2026 ke end tak rally aa sakti hai. Jo P/E ratios abhi high hain, woh pehle bhi aksar disappointing returns de chuke hain. Nifty 500 ka PE 23.23x hai, matlab overall index stable lag raha hai, par company-specific issues bahut hain.
Aage dekhein toh 2026 ke second half mein market mein sudhaar dikh sakta hai, earnings growth 14% tak ja sakti hai. Lekin filhaal thoda volatile reh sakta hai. Toh 'buy the dip' strategy sabke liye kaam nahi kar rahi. Stock picking par dhyan dena hi behtar lag raha hai.