Whalesbook
Market ka mood toh aaj tight tha!
BSE Sensex 0.8% upar 77,496 par band hua aur NSE Nifty 50 bhi 0.8% badhkar 24,178 par pahuncha. Pure BSE market cap mein ₹1.7 trillion ka izafa dekha gaya, jo ₹468.6 trillion ho gaya. Is rally ka main reason tha banks, lenders aur metal companies ke zabardast results. Jaise ki Vedanta, jiska share 4.6% uchhal gaya apne profit mein badhotri ke baad. Yeh dikhata hai ki India ki domestic demand toh filhaal solid hai.
Lekin yeh domestic strength zyada der tikne wali hai ya nahi, yeh bade oil prices par depend karta hai. Brent crude 3% tadap kar $107 per barrel ho gaya. Strait of Hormuz ke paas badhte geopolitical tensions iske peeche ka reason hain. Ab India toh 85% crude oil import karta hai, toh bhaiyo, prices badhne se seedha impact padega. Analysts bol rahe hain ki crude oil mein har $10 ka rise India ke import bill ko $1.5 billion se $2 billion tak badha sakta hai. Current account deficit bhi 0.35%-0.5% tak widen ho sakta hai aur inflation toh badhegi hi. Matlab, achhi company earnings aur global commodity risks ke beech market phans gaya hai.
Market mein bade players ne sabse zyada dum dikhaya. Reliance Industries (RIL) ka share 2.7% bhaga, aur pichhle hafte se toh 7.4% upar hai. Bharti Airtel bhi 2.3% chadha. Vedanta ka 4.6% jump bhi commodity sector ki strength bata raha hai. Yeh bade stocks, especially energy aur mining wale, rising commodity prices ko handle kar pa rahe hain. Lekin jab hum market ki 'breadth' dekhte hain, toh picture thodi alag hai. Nifty Midcap 100 0.07% neeche gaya, jabki Smallcap 0.65% upar tha. Aur overall, 2,180 stocks gire hain jabki sirf 2,051 badhe hain. Matlab, rally sirf kuch top companies mein thi, poore market mein nahi phaili.
Underlying risks toh abhi bhi hain. India crude oil ke liye import par bahut depend karta hai, aur 40-50% oil Strait of Hormuz se guzarta hai, jo ki geopolitical tensions ke liye sensitive area hai. Agar prices $150 tak pahunch gayi, toh sab mehnat par paani phir sakta hai. IT companies bhi cautious outlook de rahi hain, global economy slow hone ka dar hai. Financial companies aa rahi hain, par strict regulations aur bad loans ka provision unke gains ko rok sakta hai. Jab market ki breadth weak hoti hai, toh yeh aksar signal deta hai ki rally sirf kuch bade stocks ke dum par hai. Agar global situation kharab hui toh mid aur small-cap companies ke liye risk badh sakta hai. Nifty ke liye immediate resistance 24,300-24,330 ke aas paas hai, aur support 24,000 ke neeche mil sakta hai. RIL aur Bharti Airtel ke liye analysts positive hain, aur Vedanta ko bhi 'Buy' rating mili hai. Par asal sawal yeh hai ki kya market yeh imported inflation ko handle kar payega aur domestic demand ko girne se rok payega?