Whalesbook
Yaar, aaj markets mein itni tezi dekhne ko mili, sabse bada reason tha qtrly earnings jo expected se better aaye hain, aur economic data bhi solid raha. Investors ab unn sectors mein paisa laga rahe hain jahan value hai, specially IT sector mein. Geopolitical tensions ko bhi log ignore kar rahe hain, aur commodity prices ke rise hone ke baad bhi sab theek lag raha hai.
Sabse aage toh Auto sector raha, Nifty Auto index 2.26% upar gaya. Maruti Suzuki toh bhai saab, 5% bhaga apne FY26 results ke baad aur FY27 ke liye bhi positive outlook diya. Bharat Forge, M&M, Exide Industries, Eicher Motors – ye sab bhi 2% se zyada badhe.
Phir aata hai IT sector. Yahan bhi buying interest badhi hai, Nifty IT index 1.64% chala gaya. Analysts keh rahe hain ki prices itne girne ke baad IT stocks ab value investors ke liye bilkul sahi mauka ban gaye hain. FY27 mein growth shayad 2-3% jaisi moderate ho, par IT companies ka track record aur high dividends investors ko attract kar rahe hain. Valuations toh ab kaafi kam lag rahe hain, Nifty IT index toh apne peak se lagbhag 27% neeche hai.
Market ka yeh rise actually expected se better quarterly earnings aur credit growth jaise data ke chalte hua hai. West Asia crisis aur oil prices ke worries ko investors ne already price in kar liya hai. Oil prices kam hote toh economy ke liye achha tha, par current levels bhi zyada problem nahi kar rahe. Reliance Industries jaise badhe stocks ne bhi support kiya, yeh 2.46% badha. Smallcap index 1.20% aur Midcap index 0.85% bhi strong the, matlab pura market bullish tha.
Valuations ki baat karein toh Infosys, TCS jaise bade IT firms FY26 mein 28-30x P/E par trade kar rahe hain. Global rivals ke muqable yeh bahut attractive lag raha hai, kyunki wahan interest rates zyada hain. Maruti Suzuki ka P/E 30x ke aas paas hai, jo India mein uska market share dikhata hai. Overall Sensex 25x aur Nifty 23x P/E par hain, matlab market overvalued nahi lag raha tha, earnings growth ko dekhte hue.
Par haan, risk toh hamesha hai. Geopolitical events ko ignore karna risky ho sakta hai, agar tension badhi toh oil prices aur badh sakte hain jisse import cost aur company profits par asar padega. Kuch companies jaise Bandhan Bank mein asset quality ko lekar sawal hain, par uska P/E 15x shayad ye concerns dikha raha hai. IT firms mein growth moderate hai, global slowdown aaya toh IT spending kam ho sakti hai. Larsen & Toubro ke execution aur debt ko lekar bhi chinta hai, haalanki projects ka pipeline strong hai.
Technical side se dekhein toh Nifty ko 24,050 ke support level ko pakde rakhna tha. Agar yeh level cross hua toh 24,350-470 tak ja sakta tha. Agar is level se neeche gira toh 23,500 tak ka risk tha. Analysts ka kehna hai ki market ki strength dikhi ki kaise good news absorb kar li aur geopolitical worries ko shrug off kar diya.