Whalesbook
So, kya hua hai, asli picture yeh hai ki aajkal duniya mein jo bade-bade conflicts chal rahe hain, unki wajah se apna India ka IPO market pura 'chilling' mode mein chala gaya hai. Global markets mein crude oil prices badh gaye hain, foreign investors paisa nikal rahe hain, aur Nifty jaise indices bhi gir rahe hain. Is wajah se companies ko acche valuations milna mushkil ho gaya hai, toh bhaiyon ne apne IPOs abhi rok diye hain. Jo ₹3 lakh crore ka pipeline ready tha, woh sab abhi hold par hai.
Ab asal 'kahaani' yahi hai ki kai promoters aur pehle wale investors ne IPO ko apna paisa nikalne ka 'golden ticket' bana liya tha. Pichhle kuch saalon mein, lagbhag 300 IPOs mein toh Offer for Sale (OFS) tha, jisme company mein paisa lagane ki jagah, promoters ko sidha ₹1.76 lakh crore mil gaye! Aur yeh bhi pata hai kya? Yeh saare sales bahut high valuations par ho rahe the, kabhi kabhi toh 57x P/E ratio par, jabki market average toh 20-30x hi hai. Is chakkar mein apna retail investor high price par khareed leta hai aur listing ke baad stock price girne lagta hai. Kuch toh IPO price se bhi neeche trade kar rahe hain!
SME IPO market bhi pehle jaisa 'garam' nahi raha. Abhi tak sirf 2.8% ka average listing gain mil raha hai, aur bahut se new listings apna issue price bhi hold nahi kar paa rahe. Lagta hai ab 'hype' se zyada company ke fundamentals par dhyan dene ka time aa gaya hai.
Haan, apna regulator SEBI bhi dekh raha hai sab. Market ke pressure ko control karne ke liye unhone kuch flexibility di hai. Ab companies apna IPO size 50% tak reduce kar sakti hain bina dobara filing kiye, pehle yeh limit sirf 20% thi. Yeh facility September 30, 2026 tak hai. Unhone approval deadlines bhi extend kiye hain aur penalties bhi maaf ki hain. Par sach poochho toh yeh sab temporary solutions lag rahe hain pricing aur exit strategies ke bade issues ke liye.
Basically, yeh ek purana pattern ban gaya hai jahan retail investors fas jaate hain. IPOs aksar promoters aur PE firms ke liye exit ka rasta ban jate hain, company ko long-term funds raise karne ke liye nahi. Isi wajah se IPOs ko sellers ke exit ke liye price kiya jata hai, na ki company ki asli value ke liye. Abhi market ka future toh geopolitics par depend karta hai, par jab tak promoters quick exit nahi chhodenge aur investors fundamentals par focus nahi karenge, tab tak risk toh bana hi rahega. Agle saal Jio, NSE aur PhonePe jaise bade IPOs aa sakte hain, jo shayad market mein phir se jaan daal de.