Whalesbook
Aakhir Kyun Aisa Bol Rahe Hain Goldman Sachs Wale?
Yeh log bata rahe hain ki India ke stocks ka valuation growth ke hisaab se bahut zyada ho gaya hai. Aur upar se, sab log Artificial Intelligence (AI) ke impact ko lekar thoda tense hain. Is wajah se, Goldman Sachs ko lagta hai ki India ke stocks mein ab utna mazaa nahi hai jitna pehle tha, khaskar jab Asia ke doosre regions ke stocks se compare karein.
Toh Kya Karein Investors?
Goldman Sachs ne investors ke liye ek strategy batayi hai: un companies par focus karo jisme Foreign Investors ki holding kam hai. Ye log maan rahe hain ki jab global investors ka mood India jaise emerging markets ke liye sudhrega, tab ye low foreign ownership wale stocks achha perform kar sakte hain. Agar aap short-term market ke fluctuations se nahi ghabrate, toh yeh strategy try kar sakte ho.
Kahan Lagaya Paisa?
Goldman Sachs ne 12 companies par apna positive view rakha hai. Inmein hain Hindustan Unilever, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Auto, Bank of Baroda, Trent, Solar Industries India, Siemens, Bajaj Holdings & Investment, Bosch, One 97 Communications, aur MRF. Inka kehna hai ki ye companies oil price ke shocks se kam affect hongi, jo ek achhi baat hai.
FII Flows Ka Kya Scene Hai?
Recently, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) ne Indian markets se kafi paisa nikala hai, aur shayad yeh outflow ab peak par hone wala hai. Lekin, Goldman Sachs ko nahi lagta ki paisa turant wapas aa jayega. Data dikhata hai ki FII flows oil prices girne ke baad jaldi nahi aate; jaise April mein oil price girne ke baad bhi FIIs ne selling jari rakhi thi. Zyadatar, girte hue oil prices ka FII flows par short-term mein bahut kam hi positive impact dikha hai.
Foreign Investors Ke Liye Earnings Ki Chinta
Foreign investment ko affect karne wala sabse bada factor earnings forecasts mein changes hain. Goldman Sachs ko lagta hai ki FIIs tab tak wapas nahi aayenge jab tak earnings recovery ko lekar clarity nahi mil jaati, bhale hi unhone pehle se hi expectations kam hone ke darr se selling kar di ho.
Is saal ab tak, foreign investors ne Indian equities mein $22 billion beche hain, jo 2025 ke poore saal ke $19 billion ke record ko todta hai aur pichhle 2.5 decades mein sabse badi sell-off hai. Pichhle 250 din ke hisaab se, ab tak ka $30 billion ka selling 2022 aur 2025 ke lows ke aas-paas hai. September 2024 ke peak se, foreign investors ne $53 billion beche hain, jo market cap ka 0.9% hai. Yeh outflow 2009 ke Global Financial Crisis se zyada hai, lekin 2022 ke global tightening cycle ke 1% se kam hai. Agar yeh outflow 1% market cap tak pahunchta hai, toh $4 billion aur selling ho sakti hai.
Foreign Ownership Mein Badlav
Is saal ke pehle quarter (Q1 2026) mein Indian equities mein foreign ownership 14-saal ke low par aa gayi. FII holdings bhi 20 saal se zyada baad pehli baar Domestic Institutional Investor (DII) holdings se kam ho gayi. Ab FIIs ke paas lagbhag 16% Indian equities hain, jabki DIIs ke paas 17% hain. Bade stocks mein foreign share sabse zyada kam hua, jo 10-saal ka low hai. Banks, real estate, aur consumer retail & services jaise sectors mein sabse zyada quarterly drop dikhi. Lekin metals, utilities, aur industrials mein foreign holdings badhi hain.