Manish Jain, Head of Fund Management at Centrum PMS, ne kaha ki Nifty aur broader markets mein haal hi mein hui badi girawat primarily external global risks se chal rahi hai, na ki domestic economic frailties se. Nifty ne pichhle hafte apne recent peak se lagbhag 900 points gawa diye hain, aur broader market indices mein aur bhi tezi se girawat hui hai.
Jain ne zor diya ki domestic Indian economy sthir dikha rahi hai, consistent GDP growth aur positive corporate earnings trends se support mil raha hai. Yeh resilience videshi vikas se judi volatility ke vipreet hai, jismein proposed U.S. tariff legislation aur Venezuela aur West Asia jaise regions mein geopolitical tensions shamil hain.
Jin investors ka focus do se teen saal ka hai, unke liye Jain ne perfect entry points ka intezaar karne ke khilaf salah di, yeh kehte hue ki market timing kabhi precise nahi hoti. Unhone un sectors par focus karne ka sujhav diya jo behtar earnings growth aur strong domestic support ke liye taiyar hain, khaas taur par banks, automobiles, aur potentially large-cap Information Technology (IT) stocks ka naam liya.
Aage chal kar, Jain ne market ki disha ko shape karne wale teen mahatvapurna domestic factors ki pehchan ki: current cycle ke baad interest rates ka sthir hona, Indian Rupee ka current levels ke aas-paas sthir hona, aur sabse mahatvapurna, sustained earnings growth. Corporate earnings pichhle chaar consecutive quarters se downgrades ka samna kar rahi hain, jismein projected growth around 12% aksar 6-7% tak pahunchti hai.
Iss quarter ke liye banks ke early indicators mazboot lag rahe hain, jismein recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts ke karan, reported numbers mein sequential badhotri hui hai. Agle mahine aane wala Union Budget bhi ek mahatvapurna sentiment trigger banne ki ummeed hai. IT sector ke andar, Jain ne large-cap companies ke liye zyada optimism jataya, yeh sujhav dete hue ki unke haal hi mein earnings guidance cuts aur valuation multiple reductions ne potential rotation trade ke liye mauke banaye hain, jisse woh saal ke liye ek 'good dark horse' ban sakte hain.