Whalesbook
Fractal Analytics: AI ka Jaadu Chala!
Fractal Analytics ka IPO bhagwaan ke naam pe nikal gaya, total 2.66x subscribe hua. Sabse zyada toh bade players, matlab QIBs ne interest dikhaya, unhone toh apni poori quota 4.18x tak bhar di! Yeh sab AI ka craze hai, bhai. Duniya bhar mein log AI mein $2 trillion se zyada invest karne wale hain 2026 tak. Fractal ne bhi plan kiya hai ki woh apna paisa AI research pe aur apne Fractal Alpha platform ko badhane mein lagayega. Company ka valuation lagbhag ₹15,473.6 crore pakda gaya hai, jo kaafi heavy hai. Matlab market inki AI innovations ko bahu mulyaankit kar raha hai, kyunki yeh apne IT service peers se zyada matlab 70x FY25 earnings par trade kar raha hai, jo ki kaafi high growth expectations dikhata hai.
AYE Finance: MSME Lending Mein Thandi Hawa
Yaar, AYE Finance ka IPO bilkul bhi nahi chala. Sirf 97% issue hi subscribe ho paya. QIBs ne thoda interest dikhaya (1.50x), lekin retail investors toh aaye hi nahi. Waise toh MSME ko loan ki bohot zaroorat hai aur NBFCs FY26 mein MSME lending ko 20% tak badhane wale hain. Lekin AYE Finance ka Gross NPA ratio September 2025 tak 4.85% tha, jo baaki companies se zyada hai. Isliye investors thode nervous hain. Company ka valuation 1.35x Price-to-Book hai, jo SBFC Finance (2.97x) aur Five-Star Business Finance (2.05x) jaise competitors se kam hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki yeh IPO poora priced hai, matlab zyada mehnga nahi lekin zyada sasta bhi nahi, aur short-term investors ko savdhan rehna chahiye.
Market Ka Mood Kya Kehta Hai?
Yeh dono IPOs ka alag-alag response bata raha hai ki market abhi AI aur tech companies ko zyada pasand kar raha hai, jahan innovation aur future growth dikhta hai. Gartner ka kehna hai ki 2026 tak 80% companies Generative AI use karengi. Wahi dusri taraf, NBFCs ko thoda interest rate badhne aur profit kam hone ka dar hai. RBI kuch rules change kar rahi hai, lekin bade players ko ab bhi quality assets manage karne mein dikkat aa sakti hai.
Aage Kya Ho Sakta Hai? (Bear Case)
Fractal Analytics ke liye sabse bada risk uski high valuation hai. Agar growth thoda bhi kam hua toh price gira sakta hai. Plus, company apna 92% revenue bahar se kamati hai, toh currency aur global risks bhi hain. Clients bhi concentrated hain, agar koi bada client chhod gaya toh dikkat aa sakti hai. AYE Finance ke liye NPA ratio aur interest rate badhna ek chinta ka vishay hai. Competition bhi badh raha hai, aur MSME sector mein utar-chadav aate rehte hain.
Future Outlook
Fractal Analytics AI ke future growth ka fayda utha sakta hai agar woh apna plan sahi se execute kare. Lekin AYE Finance ko apni asset quality sudharni hogi aur profitable rehna hoga is competitive MSME lending market mein. Dekhte hain listing ke baad kaunsa stock kamaal karta hai!