Whalesbook
Toh hua kya hai ki last week ke end mein, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) ne index futures mein apni long positions bahut zyada badha di hain. Matlab shorts kam kiye aur longs badhaye, jisse lagta hai ki market mein thodi support hai aur achanak crash hone ke chances kam hain. Unhone index futures mein shorts ko 3.2% kam karke 252,333 contracts kar diye, jabki longs 2% badhakar 35,826 contracts kar diye. Is positioning se lagta hai ki koi bada market collapse jaldi nahi aayega, haalanki intraday mein thodi girawat dekhi gayi hai.
Nifty Financial Services Ki Khatarnak Halat
Sabse badi chinta ka vishay hai Nifty Financial Services Index. Bhai sahab, ye index toh Supertrend indicator ke neeche seedha break ho gaya hai aur Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi 45 se neeche gir gaya hai. Matlab sellers full power mein aa gaye hain aur buyers kamzor pad rahe hain. Price action critical short-term support levels ke upar tik nahi pa raha hai. Agar ye 25,000 ka support level toot gaya, toh yeh seedha 24,700 aur phir 24,300 tak gir sakta hai. Wahi 26,000 ek bada resistance level bana hua hai.
Is sector ka P/E ratio, jo lagbhag 25x hai, woh Nifty 50 ke P/E (22x) se zyada hai. Agar earnings growth slow hui toh valuations bhi gir sakte hain. Historical data batata hai ki jab financial services mein aise breakdowns hote hain, toh uske baad lambi giraawat aati hai.
Auto Sector Mein Thodi Chamak, Par Valuation Ka Dar
Dusri taraf, Nifty Auto Index mein short-term bullish reversal ke signs dikh rahe hain. Index 24,400 ke aas-paas Supertrend support se bounce hua hai. Momentum indicators bhi theek lag rahe hain. Agar ye 24,400 ke support ke upar rehta hai, toh 26,700 aur phir 27,250 tak ja sakta hai.
Lekin, is sector ka P/E ratio bhi lagbhag 30x hai, jo broader market se kaafi upar hai. Toh ye rally kitni chali gi, keh nahi sakte. Jab bhi market ka sentiment bigadta hai, auto rally aksar short-lived rehti hai.
Baaki Market Aur Overall Outlook
FIIs ki buying ke bawajood, broader market participation kamzor hai. Small Cap 100 Index mein sirf 26% stocks apne 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke upar hain. Nifty Pharma (80%), Metal (67%) aur FMCG (60%) sectors mein thodi better performance dikh rahi hai. Par Nifty 50 index bhi 28,000 ke aas-paas resistance face kar raha hai.
Overall, market mein caution hi sahi hai. Jab tak financial sector sambhal nahi jaata aur zyada traders market mein participate nahi karte, tab tak bade up move ki ummeed kam hai. Analyst bhi financial sector mein margin pressure aur auto sector mein demand shift ko lekar chintit hain.