Whalesbook
Bhai log, suno! MCX ka share pichhle ek saal mein 147% bhaga hai, lagbhag ₹2,994 ke level par pahunch gaya hai. Aur jahan tak pichhle quarter (Q3 FY26) ki baat hai, company ne kamaal hi kar diya! ₹401 Crore ka net profit book kiya, jo pichhle quarter se double tha!
Revenue bhi 78% badh kar ₹666 Crore ho gaya. Sabse mast toh yeh tha ki EBITDA margins 74.4% tak pahunch gaye, jo pehle 65.1% the. Yeh sab hua kyunki trading volumes, especially gold aur silver mein, ekdum 224% surge hue the!
Par ab asli sawaal yahi hai ki kya yeh 74% waale super high margins tik paayenge? Ya yeh sirf market ki current volatility ka fayda hai? Investors yahi soch rahe hain. Kyunki MCX ka valuation abhi kaafi high hai, P/E ratio 80.6 ke aas-paas hai (kuch metrics par toh 116.69 tak!), jo competitors jaise BSE Ltd. (mid-to-high 70s) aur Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) se zyada hai. Global players jaise CME Group aur Nasdaq toh isse kam multiples par trade karte hain.
MCX ki growth abhi bhi commodity price volatility par depend karti hai. Agar volatility kam hui toh trading volumes (ADT) kam ho sakte hain, jisse revenue par asar padega. SEBI naye rules la raha hai, jisse banks aur pension funds jaise bade players commodity trading mein aa sakte hain, jo MCX ke liye achha ho sakta hai. Lekin, BSE aur IEX jaise competitors aur naye platforms (jaise coal trading) mein lagne wala paisa short-term margins par pressure daal sakta hai.
Ab sabki nazar management ki guidance par hai. FY27 ke liye woh kya bolte hain, kya woh sustained growth aur volumes ka confidence de paate hain ya nahi, yeh sabse important hoga. Agar unhone koi kamzori dikhai, toh valuation aur margins ka pressure stock par definitely dikhega.