Bahut se investors data se zyada acchi kahaniyon par bharosa karte hain, jise 'Storification Bias' kehte hain. Ye trap aapko loss mein chal rahe stocks ko hold karne par majboor kar deta hai.
Insani dimag ko acchi kahaniyan sunna bahut pasand hai. Market mein isi ko 'Storification Bias' kehte hain, jahan hum company ke fundamentals ke bajaye uski 'cool story' se pyaar karne lagte hain. Jab koi stock 'unbeatable brand' ya 'future ka leader' ban jata hai, toh hum uska logic check karna band kar dete hain.
Ye kyun khatarnak hai?
Market koi fixed script nahi hai, lekin bahot se log valuation model mein 100% growth predict kar lete hain. Indian market ka data dekhein toh bahut kam companies aisi hain jo 10 saal tak लगातार profit grow kar pati hain. Kahani mein kho kar aap industry ke badlav, competition, aur regulatory risk ko ignore kar dete hain.
Emotion ka game
Sabse bada risk tab aata hai jab aap apni hi bani hui kahani se attach ho jate hain. Isse 'High-conviction bias' hota hai—yani stock gir raha hai, business kharab ho raha hai, lekin aap abhi bhi wahi purani kahani gaa rahe hain. Aap tab tak exit nahi karte jab tak portfolio ka 50-60% safaya nahi ho jata.
Kya karein?
Kahaniyon ke bajaye 'Probabilistic Analysis' par focus karein. Matlab, sirf ek hi future expect na karein. Alag-alag scenarios banayein aur dekhein ki agar market ka mood badla toh kya hoga? Apni assumptions ko challenge karna seekhein, kyunki successful investor wahi hai jo facts badalne par apna opinion turant badal le.