Whalesbook
Global tensions ka India par asar!
Dekho, PL Capital ki India Strategy report mein bataya gaya hai ki Nifty ke liye jo earnings growth ka andaaza tha FY26 (March 2026 tak) ke liye, use kam karke ab sirf 4% kar diya gaya hai. Yeh 6% se kaafi bada drop hai jo FY25 mein estimate kiya tha. Sabse badi wajah hai duniya mein badhti hui geopolitical tensions, especially West Asia mein, aur crude oil ki badhti hui prices.
Mehnga tel aur inflation ki chinta!
India toh khud energy importer hai, toh jab tel mehnga hota hai toh apna import bill bhi tagda ho jata hai. Lagbhag $70 billion se bhi zyada kharch ho sakta hai sirf tel import mein. Isse inflation bhi 5% ke paar ja sakta hai. Upar se, supply chain mein bhi dikkat chal rahi hai aur agar El Nino aaya toh monsoon season bhi kharab ho sakta hai, jo hamare agriculture ke liye bahut important hai. Is sabka mila kar, India ki GDP growth bhi 6.5% se ghat kar shayad 6% ho jaye.
Market valuations aur investors ka outlook
Abhi Nifty apne forward earnings ke 17 times par trade kar raha hai, jo ki 15-year average ke 19.4 times se 12.4% kam hai. PL Capital ka kehna hai ki FY28 tak earnings per share 1,551 rahega aur target price 27,080 ho sakta hai, jiske liye valuation 17.5 times (average se 10% discount) rakha hai. Amnish Aggarwal, Co-Head of Institutional Equities at PL Capital, bol rahe hain ki long-term mein toh India strong hai, par abhi inflation, interest rates aur global demand ki problems growth ko rok rahi hain. Unka yeh bhi kehna hai ki market price shayad yeh sab risks reflect kar raha hai, par agar global situation aur kharab hui toh earnings forecast aur bhi kam ho sakte hain.