Whalesbook
Toh bhai log, Morgan Stanley ne apna crystal ball nikala hai aur bola hai ki Indian stock market mein ekdum toofani tezi aane wali hai. Ye koi choti moti prediction nahi hai, unhone bola hai ki Sensex 95,000 tak pahunch sakta hai saal ke end tak, jo ki current levels se 24% upar hai! Aur agar sab kuch sahi ho gaya, toh bull case mein toh 107,000 ka target bhi dekh sakte hain.
Aisa kyun bol rahe hain MS wale?
Iska sabse bada reason hai market ki valuations ka kaafi low hona. Report kehti hai ki Sensex gold ke terms mein 'lagbhag sabse cheap' hai. Matlab, jab valuations itni low hoti hain na, toh share price mein bhagne ka potential bahut badh jaata hai, especially jab earnings bhi badhne ki ummeed ho. Unka kehna hai ki FY26-28 tak earnings growth 19% tak jaa sakti hai. Current P/E bhi dekho toh Sensex ka 20.32x hai, jo 25-year average 22x se bhi kam hai. Ye sab ekdum 'buy' karne ka signal de raha hai.
FPIs gaye, par Fikar not!
Abhi haal hi mein, US-Iran ke tensions aur dusre global risks ki wajah se foreign investors (FPIs) ne bhari selling ki hai, March mein lagbhag ₹1 lakh crore ka maal bech diya. Isse market giri bhi thi, Sensex aur Nifty 11% tak crash hue the. FPIs ne India se lagbhag ₹10 lakh crore assets nikaal liye the, jisse unke custody mein ₹62.46 lakh crore reh gaye. Lekin Morgan Stanley ka kehna hai ki agar West Asia mein shaanti ho gayi, toh ye flows reverse ho sakte hain aur FPIs wapas aa sakte hain.
Kaunse sectors mein paisa?
Morgan Stanley ko financials, consumer discretionary aur industrials sector sabse zyada pasand aa rahe hain. Financials toh waise bhi India ki backbone hain aur abhi attractive valuations par hain. Industrials sector mein earnings growth 18% tak expect hai.
Risk toh hai boss!
Haan, risk toh hai. Agar crude oil prices $100 ke paar chale gaye, earnings growth slow ho gayi, toh bear case mein Sensex 76,000 tak bhi ja sakta hai. Aur agar FPIs sell karna continue rakhte hain, toh thodi pareshani ho sakti hai. Lekin overall, Morgan Stanley ka base case scenario ekdum confident lag raha hai ki market 95,000 tak pahunchega.