Whalesbook
Bhai log, Q3 FY26 earnings mein ekdum alag kahani dekhne ko mili. Bade companies (large caps) ne toh kamaal kar diya aur Nifty ko upar pahuncha diya, par chote stocks (small caps) expectations se kaafi peeche reh gaye. Isse market mein performance ka difference saaf dikh raha hai.
Kya Hai Poora Scene? (The Numbers)
Toh hua yeh ki, JM Financial ke hisaab se 40% small-cap companies analysts ke expectations miss kar gayi. Lekin bade companies mein yeh number sirf 25% tha. Aur Nifty50 index mein toh 34% companies ne expectations beat kiye, jabki 28% miss kar gayi. Overall Nifty50 ka earnings per share (EPS) ekdum mast 13.4% badha hai year-on-year. Aur agar financials ko hata dein toh yeh growth 21% tak pahunch gaya! Iska matlab hai ki bade players ne kaafi achha perform kiya hai. Nifty 50 index toh February 2026 mein 25,819.35 ke aas paas band hua aur January mein toh all-time high 26,340 bhi touch kar liya tha.
Valuation Aur Global Scene (Valuation & Macro)
Abhi Nifty 50 ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio lagbhag 22.5 se 23.5 times chal raha hai. Yeh apne 5-saal ke average se kam hai, par baaki emerging market countries se zyada hai. Matlab, valuation thoda stretched hai, par DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) ka support achha hai. RBI ne bhi repo rate ko 5.25% par stable rakha hai aur GDP growth FY26 ke liye 7.4% aur inflation 2.1% rehne ka andaza hai. Yeh sab market ke liye positive hai, par global uncertainties ka bhi risk hai.
Sector Wise Khel (Sectoral Moves)
Is quarter mein sectors mein bhi alag-alag performance dikha. Metals and mining toh shaandaar growth dikha rahe hain, demand acchi hai. Par steel mein margin par pressure hai. Telecom aur automobiles ne bhi achha kiya. Lekin IT sector mein revenue toh theek hai par margins tight hain. Reliance Industries ki baat karein toh unka retail business margins mein peeche reh gaya.
Aage Kya? (Future Outlook)
Aage ki baat karein toh, analysts ne Nifty 50 EPS ke projections ko thoda adjust kiya hai. FY26 ke liye ab 7% growth aur FY27 ke liye 15.7% growth ka andaza hai. Market mein abhi bhi cautiously optimistic hain, par sabki nazar earnings par hi hai. Kuch analysts financials aur NBFCs ko buy rating de rahe hain. Lekin bade companies ka performance aur global situation market ko aage le jayegi. Small caps ko abhi bhi apna performance sudharna hoga taki woh bhi saath mein bhag sakein.