Whalesbook
Rally Toh Hui, Par Reason Kya Tha?
April futures series khatam hui aur indices ne mazboot closing di. Lekin, agar aap data dekho toh pata chalta hai ki yeh rally actual buyer strength se nahi, balki traders ne jo pehle short selling ki thi, usko cover karne se aayi hai.
Nifty 50 mein 7.45% aur Bank Nifty mein 10.19% ka jump laga, par open interest mein 32% se zyada ki kami aayi. Iska matlab hai ki log nayi long positions banane ki jagah, purani short positions ko band kar rahe the. Nifty ka rollover 71% tha jo average 72% se thoda kam hai, aur Bank Nifty ka 79% tha jo average 80% se thoda niche hai. Matlab, koi naye logon ka interest zyada nahi dikh raha tha.
Yeh Rally Kitni Sustainable Hai?
Market ka upar jaana mostly traders dwara apni bearish positions ko exit karne se hua. Aisi rallies jaldi gir bhi sakti hain kyuki inmein asli conviction nahi hota. Open interest ka kam hona iss baat ka ishara hai ki log long term ke liye entry nahi le rahe.
Sectors Ka Game Aur Stocks Ka Haal
Pharma sector mein Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. ka rollover sabse zyada positive raha. Pharma sector ka overall rollover bhi average se upar tha. Wahi, Oil & Gas sector bhi stable dikha, jisme ONGC ne bhi positive deviation dikhaya.
Lekin, IT sector mein alag kahaani thi. HCL Technologies Ltd. aur Infosys Ltd. mein fresh short buildup dekha gaya. HCL Technologies par selling pressure tha. Infosys bhi apne industry average se kam price par trade kar raha tha aur market se underperform kar raha tha.
Vedanta mein rollover participation mein tezi se girawat aayi, jo stock ke liye caution dikhata hai.
Reliance Ka Pressure Aur FIIs Ka Dar
Reliance Industries Ltd. mein rollover cost sabse zyada 0.66% thi. Isse pata chalta hai ki log badi positions maintain karne ke liye premium dene ko taiyar the.
Sabse bada risk yeh hai ki market short covering par depend kar raha hai, na ki asli buying par. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) ne April mein $4 billion market se nikal liye aur unki net short positions abhi bhi bani hui hai. Yeh market ke liye ek cautious outlook de raha hai.
Aur haan, Budget mein jo STT (Securities Transaction Tax) increase karne ki baat hai FY27 se, woh bhi trading costs badha sakta hai.