Whalesbook
Kahan Paisa Ban Raha Hai, Kahan Rukavat?
Dekho, Motilal Oswal ne projections diye hain Nifty-50 ke liye aur unke hisab se Q4 FY26 mein earnings growth 10% ho sakti hai. Iska sabse bada credit ja raha hai Financials ko – NBFCs ki lending 30% badhne ki ummeed hai aur private banks mein bhi 12% ka jump aa sakta hai. Metals sector bhi peeche nahi hai, wahan 27% growth forecast hai. Tech, Auto, Retail, EMS sectors bhi contribute kar rahe hain, lekin sab sectors mein boom nahi hai. Utilities, Oil & Gas, Real Estate aur Healthcare mein low single-digit growth hi dikh rahi hai. Aur toh aur, Capital Goods mein -6%, Consumer Durables mein -5% aur Cement mein -1% ki kami forecast ki gayi hai. Matlab, ek taraf bhag daud, toh doosri taraf thodi slowdown ki situation.
Valuation Aur Global Tension Ka Darr
Abhi Nifty-50 ka forward P/E 20.4x chal raha hai, jo global average 15.1x se zyada hai. Matlab, market thoda expensive lag raha hai. Banking sector toh phir bhi theek hai 14.1x P/E ke saath, par kuch bade banks jaise ICICI Bank 22.5x par hain. Automobile sector toh aur bhi mehnga lag raha hai, Nifty Auto index 31.3x P/E par hai. Capital Goods ka toh alag hi scene hai, wahan 55.4x ka P/E hai! Upar se, inflation ka bhi tension hai, jo 3.4% se badh kar 4.0% ke paar ja sakta hai, especially Middle East ke tensions aur oil prices ki wajah se. RBI ne bhi repo rate 5.25% par stable rakha hai.
Estimates Mein Cutting?
Ek badi chinta yeh bhi hai ki kai sectors ke liye estimates kam kiye ja rahe hain. Motilal Oswal ne FY26, FY27, aur FY28 ke liye Nifty EPS estimates ko cut kiya hai, jismein Automobiles, Capital Goods, Logistics, Technology, aur Utilities jaise sectors shamil hain. Iska matlab hai ki jo sectors abhi achha kar rahe hain, unmein bhi future mein challenges aa sakte hain.
Aage Kya Dekhna Hai?
Motilal Oswal ko lagta hai ki FY26 mein earnings 13% aur FY27 mein 14% tak badh sakti hain. Nifty-50 ke liye bhi growth forecasts hain – FY26 mein 6%, FY27 mein 17%. Lekin market ka general consensus Q4 FY26 ke liye sirf 4% growth bata raha hai. Isliye, ab investors FY27 ke liye companyon ki guidance par zyada dhyan denge. Wohi companies pasand aayengi jo stable margins dikhaengi aur ek clear, positive outlook dengi.