Whalesbook
Aise kaise ho gaya? Dekho, FIIs ab har jagah apna paisa nahi laga rahe hain. Woh ab un companies par focus kar rahe hain jinka 'earnings' solid hai aur 'global visibility' bhi acchi hai. Matlab, woh specific growth stories dhundh rahe hain, na ki general market mein investment. Is selling ko sambhalne ke liye, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) ne bade mazboot tarike se buy karna start kar diya hai, jo market ke liye ek acha support ban raha hai.
Kahan lag raha hai paisa aur kahan se nikal raha?
Data batata hai ki FIIs ne kai companies se stakes beche hain, lekin unka paisa khasiyat se kuch sectors mein gaya hai. Telecom sabse bada beneficiary raha, jahan lagbhag $2.91 billion aaye hain. Uske baad Capital Goods mein $2.89 billion aur Metals sector mein $2.25 billion ka positive inflow dekha gaya hai. Iske bilkul opposite, Banking, Consumer, aur Technology stocks se FIIs ne apna paisa nikal liya hai. Companies jaise Bharti Airtel, GE Vernova T&D, Adani Ports, aur Hindalco Industries mein FIIs ki holding badhti dikhi hai.
DIIs ne sambhala maidan
Jab FIIs overall selling kar rahe hain, tab hamare Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) peeche nahi hate. Jahaan se FIIs ne share beche, wahan DIIs ne kharidari badha di hai. Is DII ki support ne foreign selling ka impact kaafi kam kar diya hai. For example, Bharti Airtel mein FII holding 22.7% se badhkar 28.8% ho gayi hai, aur GE Vernova T&D mein toh FII ownership 0.7% se seedha 18.5% par pahunch gayi! Kaamaal hai!
Iss rotation ke peeche kya reasons hain?
Government ka ₹12.2 lakh crore ka spending plan jo FY 2026-27 ke liye hai, woh Capital Goods aur Infrastructure ko boost kar raha hai, jiske liye steel ki zaroorat padegi. India ka steel market global level par unique hai, jahan 2034 tak lagbhag ~6% annual growth expect hai, aur domestic demand hi mostly supply ko absorb kar legi. Global steel demand toh 2026 mein sirf 0.3% grow hone ka andaza hai, China ke slow hone ki wajah se. Idhar, IT services market 2026 tak $1.87 trillion tak pahunch sakta hai, AI adoption aur cloud expansion ki wajah se. Telecom sector bhi ek bada growth driver bana hua hai; Bharti Airtel toh 2023 se 2026 ke beech 46% annual EPS growth dikha sakti hai.
Companies ki performance aur analysts kya bol rahe hain?
Bharti Airtel ₹10.54 trillion market cap ke saath, P/E 31-36 par trade kar raha hai, jo uski growth prospects ko dikhata hai. Adani Ports ka market cap ₹4.07 trillion hai, P/E 30-32 chal raha hai; analysts isse 'Buy' karne ki salah de rahe hain, around 10-11% upside expect kar rahe hain. Hindalco Industries metals sector mein hai aur domestic demand se chal rahi hai. JSW Steel ko lekar analysts ke views mix hain, kuch 'Moderate Buy' bol rahe hain, kuch downside bhi dekh rahe hain, price targets ₹975 se ₹1,601 tak hain. Axis Bank ko bahut log 'Strong Buy' rating de rahe hain, loan growth acchi hai par margin par pressure aa sakta hai. KPIT Technologies ko generally positive ratings mil rahi hain, par price targets mein kafi range hai, 13% se 54% tak ka potential upside dikh raha hai. Par KPIT ke margins recently thode girte hue dikhe hain. Aur One 97 Communications (Paytm) toh high P/E (100+) par hai aur 3 saal se negative ROE dikha raha hai, valuation ki chinta badha raha hai.
Fir bhi, risks toh hain hi!
Bhai, sector rotation chal raha hai, par risks abhi bhi maujood hain. Telecom sector mein regulatory uncertainties aur zabardast competition hai. Metals producers global demand slowdown se impact ho sakte hain, khas kar China se, aur raw material prices bhi upar-neeche ho sakti hain. Financial companies mein interest rates girne par net interest margins (NIMs) compress ho sakte hain. IT firms mein cost badhne aur higher-value services ki taraf badhne ki wajah se margin pressure aa sakta hai. Jaisa KPIT Technologies mein dikha, EBIT margins gir gaye hain.
Market ka outlook kya hai?
Analysts kuch companies jaise Adani Ports par toh positive hain, kai 'Buy' ratings aur attractive price targets de rahe hain. Axis Bank par bhi 'Strong Buy' consensus hai. Lekin IT aur Metals jaise sectors mein analysts ke views alag-alag hain, margin pressure aur sector challenges ki wajah se. Overall, foreign capital selective hi rahega, wohi companies pasand karega jinka earnings mazboot ho aur competitive edge ho.