Kya markets sach mein efficient hote hain? Devina Mehra ne George Soros ki theory ka use karte hue AI sector mein ban rahe bubble aur feedback loops ke khatron se alert kiya hai.
Market Efficiency ka sach
Academic books mein hum padhte hain ki 'Efficient Market Hypothesis' ke hisaab se sab kuch perfect hota hai, par Devina Mehra (First Global) ka kehna hai ki ye theory real world mein fail ho jaati hai. Markets aksar logic se nahi, balki system mein ban rahe distortions se chalte hain.
Kya hai ye 'Reflexivity' ka khel?
George Soros ki famous theory ke mutabik, sirf fundamentals price ko drive nahi karte. Kabhi-kabhi share price khud business ke results ko affect karta hai.
Sochiye aise:
- Ek company ka share price badha.
- Usse unhe sasta capital mila.
- Us paisay se unhone expansion kiya.
- Expansion se performance achi lagi, aur price aur bhag gaya!
Ye ek aisa loop ban jaata hai jahan momentum asli earnings ko peeche chhod deta hai aur valuation hawa mein udne lagti hai.
AI sector mein danger sign
Devina ne saaf warning di hai ki aaj ka AI craze isi loop ka shikaar ho sakta hai. Jab hype ki wajah se growth chalti hai aur companies debt lekar momentum maintain karti hain, toh system weak ho jaata hai. BSE Sensex ka example yaad hai? 2008-2009 ke dauran market 61% tak crash hua tha jab ye credit-fueled cycles toot gaye the.
Investors ke liye lesson
Sirf trend dekh kar mat fason. Hamesha check karo ki company ka debt kitna hai, cash flow asal mein hai ya nahi, aur kya earnings growth really expansion ke saath match kar rahi hai? Jab market price hi business decision lene lage, toh samajh lo ki correction ka time nazdeek hai.