Whalesbook
Production Record aur Expansion Ka Dhamaka!
Fiscal Year 2026 khatam hote hote Vikram Solar ne apne operations mein ek dum record tod diya. Q4 FY26 mein company ne 971MW module produce kiya aur 999MW becha. Aur haan, March 31, 2026 tak 8.2 GW ka order book bhi ready hai, jisme se 69% orders Independent Power Producers (IPPs) ke hain. Saare fiscal year mein capacity utilization 75% raha.
Company ab backward integration par bhi zor shor se kaam kar rahi hai. Gangaikondan mein 6 GW ka module facility June 2026 tak start hone wala hai, jisse total module capacity 15.5 GW ho jayegi. Plus, 9 GW TOPCon cell facility bhi December 2026 se shuru ho sakti hai aur ek 6 GW wafer/ingot facility ke liye ₹3,726 crore ka investment FY29 tak karenge. Isse supply chain risk kam hoga aur company zyada value capture kar payegi.
Valuation, Peers Aur Financials Ka Scene
Vikram Solar ka market cap lagbhag ₹7,700-7,800 crore ke aas paas hai. Iska trailing twelve-month (TTM) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio 15.79x-17.96x ke beech hai, aur forward P/E lagbhag 13.67x hai. Agar peers se compare karein toh Waaree Energies ka TTM P/E 31.3x hai aur Waaree Renewable Technologies 22.23x par trade kar raha hai. Vikram Solar ka P/E sector median se toh kam hai, lekin IT sector ke comparable companies ke 33.9x P/E se bhi kam hai. Company par debt bhi kafi kam hai, Debt-to-Equity ratio 0.20 hai, jo ki acchi financial management dikhata hai.
Margin Pressure Aur Analysts Ka Dar
Sabse badi chinta margin compression ki hai. Vikram Solar ka operating margin Q4 FY26 mein 16.14% ho gaya, jo pichle saal 17.87% tha. Halanki EBITDA badha hai, par margin girna thoda alarming hai. Industry mein overcapacity aur naye facilities ke tayyar hone mein lagne wala time, in sab wajahon se analysts thode cautious ho gaye hain.
Isi wajah se, Prabhudas Lilladher ne Vikram Solar ko 'Buy' se downgrade karke 'Accumulate' kar diya hai aur target price bhi ₹326 se kam kar ke ₹226 kar diya. Unko naye cell operations ko stabilize karne aur industry oversupply se aane wale challenges ki chinta hai. Waise, kuch aur analysts abhi bhi 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur unka average target ₹240-254 ke beech hai, matlab market mein mixed sentiments hain. Investors ko ₹201 crore ke disputed receivables aur withheld payments ke issues bhi face karne pad sakte hain. Stock kaafi volatile raha hai aur apne 52-week low ke paas chal raha hai, aur saal-dar-saal ab tak 9.79% gir chuka hai.
Outlook Aur Investor Ke Liye Kya Hai
Analysts expect karte hain ki FY26-28 ke beech revenue aur EBITDA 60-70% annual growth dikhayega, naye capacity aur strong order pipeline ki wajah se. Backward integration se cost efficiency badhegi aur long-term mein supply chain stability aayegi. Lekin, short-term mein sab kuch naye facilities ke launch, industry overcapacity ko manage karne aur margin decline ko rokne par depend karta hai. Bahut se analysts positive hain, par Prabhudas Lilladher ka 'Accumulate' rating aur sector ke risks batate hain ki abhi thoda patience rakhna pad sakta hai.