Whalesbook
Yaar, Onix Solar Energy ne Q4 FY26 mein toh record tod diya! Profit 3,932.31% bhaga, ab ₹25.67 Crore ho gaya, last year issi quarter mein toh sirf ₹0.64 Crore tha. Revenue bhi 202.07% uchhal kar ₹70.30 Crore pahunch gaya. Issi wajah se stock market mein bhi 2% ka jump dekhne ko mila, jabki Nifty 50 1.04% gir raha tha.
Aur agar pichhle quarter se compare karein, toh revenue toh 335.89% tezi se badha aur profit 78.56% upar gaya. Poore saal FY26 ki baat karein toh revenue 434.57% aur PBT 2,538.58% badha hai. Ye sab numbers dekh ke toh lagta hai company ne full throttle pe perform kiya hai.
Ab aata hai asli sawaal - valuation. Company ka trailing P/E ratio ab lagbhag 150x hai. Yeh apne competitors jaise Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy (jiska P/E 80x hai) ya Vikram Solar (jiska 60x hai) se kaafi zyada hai. Matlab, market ko company se bahut high growth expected hai, aur agar growth slow hui toh yeh valuation maintain karna mushkil ho sakta hai.
SecTOR ki baat karein toh India mein renewable energy kaafi tezi se badh raha hai, government ke bhi target hain 500 GW 2030 tak. Lekin Onix Solar ka business model zyada trading aur distribution wala hai. Isme module price ke fluctuations aur supply chain ki dikkaton ka risk zyada rehta hai, manufacturing waale companies ke comparison mein.
Yeh jo itna bada percentage jump dikh raha hai na profit mein, woh isliye kyunki pichhle saal Q4 FY25 mein base kaafi low tha, sirf ₹0.64 Crore. Company ka stock pichhle saal ₹300 se ab ₹1,100 ke aas paas pahunch gaya hai, matlab ek saal mein hi 3x se zyada ho gaya. Ye sector ke overall optimism aur company ke recent performance ki wajah se ho raha hai.
Magar bhai, is expansion ke chakkar mein expenses bhi kaafi badhe hain. Q4 mein total expenses badh kar ₹44.92 Crore ho gaye, jo pichhle quarter ke ₹1.86 Crore se kaafi zyada hain. Ismein stock-in-trade par ₹104.01 Crore kharch hue. Yeh business badhane ke liye theek hai, par trading model mein margins ka kya hoga, yeh dekhna padega. Manufacturers apni cost control kar sakte hain, traders ko market ke hisaab se chalna padta hai.
Competition toh hai hi. Vikram Solar jaise manufacturers ya Sterling and Wilson jaise EPC firms ke comparison mein, Onix Solar ko modules buy karke ache margins par bechna padega, jo ki mushkil ho sakta hai. Aur agar module technology change ho gayi ya supply mein dikkat aayi toh inventory ka risk bhi hai. Analyst coverage bhi zyada nahi hai, toh ho sakta hai kuch risks miss ho rahe hon.
Management toh keh raha hai ki woh sector ke boom ka fayda utha rahe hain aur unka full-year performance bhi strong hai. Par koi specific forward guidance nahi di hai. Investors ko ab dekha hoga ki company apne growth ko sustain kar paati hai ya nahi aur valuation justify kar paati hai ki nahi.