Whalesbook
Yeh jo scene hai na, India ke renewable energy goals mein ek bada 'divide' dikha raha hai. Ek taraf module assembly mast badh rahi hai, par asal cheez - solar cells ka production - bahut peeche hai. Is vajah se humein lagataar import par depend rehna pad raha hai.
Sochne wali baat hai, 2025 tak India ne 119 GW module manufacturing capacity add kar li, lekin cell production sirf 9 GW badha, jo ab 27 GW hua hai. Matlab, domestic cell capacity hamari module capacity ka sirf 15.3% hai! Isiliye humein 99 GW ke modules aur cells import karne pad rahe hain, jismein se 75% sirf cells hain. Aur iska seedha asar prices par padta hai, kyunki humein China jaisi countries se competition karna padta hai, jo polysilicon (93%), wafers (97%), aur cells (85%) sab manage karti hai. Ab toh ALMM List-II bhi aa raha hai, jismein government projects ke liye domestic cells chahiye honge June 2026 se. Yeh toh aur bhi local supply par pressure dalega aur bade projects ke costs badha dega.
Waise, Waaree Energies jaisi companies full speed mein expand kar rahi hain. Nuvama Institutional Equities ne toh 'Buy' rating de rakhi hai aur target price ₹3,867 set kiya hai, unke expansion plans ko dekh kar. Lekin Waaree ki cell capacity bhi badh rahi hai toh sahi, par sector mein overall cell production module capacity ka ek chhota sa hissa hi hai. Sector mein TOPCon (70% module capacity) aur monocrystalline tech (57% cell capacity) bhi adopt ho rahi hai, par imported cells use karne wale 'Made in India' modules ki cost competitiveness abhi bhi Chinese products se peeche hai.
Sabse badi weakness toh cell manufacturing mein hamara deficit hai. Module capacity 210 GW aur cell capacity 27 GW - is imbalance ka matlab hai ki humari nayi assembly lines imported cells par hi nirbhar hongi. Iske upar, India mein wafer ya polysilicon ka bilkul production nahi hai, toh hum global supply chain disruptions aur price swings ke liye vulnerable hain, jinka control mostly China ke paas hai. Aur ek badi problem - India se US ko hone wale exports (96.8% modules 2025 mein) ab US tariffs (50% tak) ki wajah se risk mein hain. Is export drop ne strategy badalne ko majboor kar diya hai, par 'Global South' mein Chinese firms se compete karna mushkil hai.
Future growth ka projection toh achha hai, 2030 tak module capacity 160 GW aur cell capacity 120 GW tak jaane ka aim hai. Yeh current deficit ko fix karne ka ek bada effort hai. Lekin itna scale achieve karne ke liye massive investment aur tech/cost challenges ko paar karna hoga. Nuvama jaise analysts Waaree Energies jaisi companies ke liye strong growth predict kar rahe hain. Par abhi industry ek critical point par hai: sirf incentives par capacity badhane se aage badhkar, sachchi cost competitiveness aur supply chain independence haasil karni hogi. Iske liye cell production gap ko close karna aur protected markets se bahar nikalna zaroori hai.