Record-Breaking Quarter, Par Sab Kuch Thik Nahi Hai?
Asal mein, January se March 2026 tak India ne 15.3 GW solar capacity install ki hai. Ye number pichhle saal ke Q1 se 143% zyada hai! Poori electricity capacity mein solar ka share 28% ho gaya hai aur renewables mein toh 55% hai. Is record boom ke peeche ka reason tha ALMM List-II jaise policy deadlines khatam karna aur kuch incentives ka fayda uthana. Gujarat aur Rajasthan jaise states ne sabse zyada contribution diya, lagbhag 79% in dono ne milakar kiya.
Aage Ka Pipeline Shrink Ho Raha Hai?
Lekin, yahan ek worrying trend dikh raha hai. Naye projects ke liye tenders 68% kam ho gaye hain, sirf 3 GW ke. Auctioned capacity bhi 64% gir kar 4 GW par aa gayi hai. Yeh future growth ke liye ek important indicator hai, aur iska matlab hai ki aane wale quarters mein capacity addition slow ho sakta hai.
Cost Badh Rahi Hai Aur Transmission Ki Bhi Dikkat Hai!
Module costs bhi abhi bhi pichhle saal se 6% zyada hain. Aur sabse badi dikkat hai grid ki. Transmission line ki kami ki wajah se, Rajasthan mein roz 1,500-2,000 MW tak solar power waste ho raha hai. Iske alawa, companies ke valuations bhi ek issue hain.
Kon Kaha Stand Karta Hai? (Valuation Check)
NTPC jaise public sector companies ka P/E ratio around 15.4x-24.1x hai, jo kaafi reasonable lagta hai. Lekin Adani Green Energy ka P/E 130x-146x tak hai, matlab market ko usse bahut growth expect hai, jisme risk bhi hai. JSW Energy ka P/E 32.8x-41.4x aur Tata Power ka 34.7x-37.5x hai, jo dikhata hai ki investors future mein acchi performance expect kar rahe hain.
Future Outlook Kya Hai?
India ka goal hai 2030 tak 500 GW renewable capacity add karna. 2026 tak world ka second-largest solar market banne ki bhi ummeed hai. Lekin, yeh sab tabhi hoga jab transmission issues solve honge, projects time par complete honge, aur costs control mein rahenge. Sirf policy deadlines par depend karke itna bada boom sustainable nahi hai.