Whalesbook
Ab kyun slow ho raha hai market?
Dekho, pandemic ke baad se India ka real estate market boom kar raha tha, par ab Crisil Ratings ke analysts keh rahe hain ki FY27 mein sales value growth sirf 4-6% reh jayegi. Ye kaafi kam hai compare karein toh FY22 se FY25 tak jo 26% ka average growth tha. Last year, matlab FY26 mein bhi ye 5-7% ke aas paas hi tha.
Price aur approval ka chakkar
Is slowdown ke piche kuch reasons hain. Property ke rates kaafi high ho gaye hain, jisse logo ko kharidne mein problem ho rahi hai, volume demand flat hai. Aur toh aur, bade shehron mein project launch karne ke liye approvals milne mein bhi der ho rahi hai. Isliye, FY27 mein average selling price growth bhi 3-5% tak slow hone ka idea hai, jo pehle se kaafi kam hai. Buyers ka mood bhi thoda down rehne wala hai, demand growth 0-2% hi expect kar rahe hain.
Inventory badh rahi hai, luxury chal raha hai
Iska asar ye hai ki unsold inventory badh kar FY27 tak 3.2-3.4 years ho jayegi, jo pehle under three years thi. Bengaluru jaise cities mein approval delays ko solve karna bahut important hoga. Par ek interesting baat ye hai ki premium aur luxury housing market abhi bhi mast chal raha hai. FY27 mein naye launches ka 38-40% isi segment se aayega, jo FY22 mein sirf 12% tha. Isse developers ko achha profit margin mil raha hai.
Developers ki finances abhi bhi mazboot
Sales growth slow hone par bhi, developers ki financial health achhi hai. Iska main reason hai consistent cash collections jo construction ke saath match kar rahe hain. Isse unka cash flow strong bana hua hai aur loan par dependance kam hui hai. Crisil ko lagta hai ki FY27 mein cash flow from operations (CFO) 15-17% badhega, kyunki collections 22-24% tak badh sakte hain.
Aage kya risks ho sakte hain?
Developers ki creditworthiness strong rehne ki umeed hai, debt-to-cash flow ratio FY27 mein 1.1-1.3 times ke beech reh sakta hai. Par kuch risks abhi bhi hain. Agar demand expectation se zyada giri aur launches high rahe, toh inventory bahut zyada build up ho sakti hai. Aur koi global problem se inflation badha toh buyer confidence aur down ho sakta hai.