Whalesbook
Premium Homes Chal Rahe Hain, Par Affordability Ki Fiqr
Pichhle kuch saalon mein, khaas kar jab se pandemic khatam hua hai, Indian property market ne zabardast comeback kiya tha, especially premium aur luxury homes mein. Lekin ab lagta hai economic situation thodi tough ho rahi hai. Haalanki kuch booking abhi bhi achhi ho rahi hain, lekin badhti hui interest rates aur aam aadmi ke liye kharidna mushkil hone ki wajah se market par pressure aa raha hai.
Saal 2025 mein, premium aur luxury segments ne total sales ka 27% hissa cover kiya, jo mid-range homes se zyada hai. Iski sales 30% se zyada badhi thi year-on-year. Lekin, ek badi problem ye hai ki overall affordability bigad rahi hai. Desh bhar mein average Price-to-Income ratio 6.6 (2020) se badh kar 7.5 (2024) ho gaya hai. Developers ne zyada profit ke liye premium segments par focus kiya, jiske karan affordable housing ka share 40% se gir kar sirf 15% reh gaya hai.
Cost Badhne Se Developers Ki Jeb Pe Dabaav
Bahar ke geopolitical tensions ki wajah se construction costs aur bhi badh rahi hain. Steel, aluminium, copper jaise cheezon ke daam badhne se building costs mein 3-5% tak ka izafa ho sakta hai. Haalanki cement aur steel ke daam thoda stable hue the 2025 mein, par base metal prices aur labor costs mein 5-6% ka steady rise developers ka profit margin daba raha hai. Jin projects ki booking pehle se ho chuki hai, unmein ye badhti hui costs seedha profit kam kar dengi. Chhote aur medium developers ke liye ye zyada badi pareshani hai, jiske karan projects 3 se 6 mahine tak late ho sakte hain.
Economic Headwinds Se Demand Thandi Pad Rahi Hai
India ki economy ab strong growth se nikal kar thoda challenging phase mein enter kar rahi hai. FY26 mein GDP growth around 6.0% se 6.9% rehne ka andaaza hai, jo FY26 se kam hai. Inflation bhi 4.0% se 4.7% ke aas-paas rehne ki umeed hai, jo central bank ke target ke kareeb ya usse upar hai. Global conflicts ki wajah se energy aur food prices badh sakti hain.
Is situation mein, 2026 mein interest rates kam hone ki ummeedein bhi kam ho gayi hain. Reserve Bank of India ne repo rate ko 5.25% par stable rakha hai, matlab abhi rate cuts mushkil lag rahe hain. Higher interest rates aur AI/automation ka IT sector par asar bhi demand ko kam kar raha hai, khaas kar Bengaluru aur Hyderabad jaise IT hubs mein.
Market Performance Aur FY27 Ka Outlook
Nifty Realty index bhi is tension ko dikha raha hai, jo saal ki shuruat se ab tak 15% gir chuka hai, Nifty 50 ke 10% drop se zyada. Analysts ka FY27 ke liye forecast hai ki sales growth sirf 5-7% rahegi, kyunki affordability issues aur pichhle saalon ki high growth ke baad ab slowdown expected hai. Jefferies ka kehna hai ki pre-sales growth FY27 mein 6% tak aa jayegi, jo FY26 mein 21% thi.
Affordability Aur Bigad Rahi Hai
Premium segment achha perform kar raha ho, par overall affordability ki situation kharab hai. Price-to-income ratio badh gaya hai aur EMI-to-income ratio bhi, khaas kar bade shehron mein, kaafi upar chala gaya hai. Agar developers ko apna profit maintain karna hai toh unko costs manage karni hongi aur market bhi ek 'reset phase' mein ja sakta hai. Stock market mein chal rahi volatility ke karan investors bhi filhaal real estate mein invest karne se katra rahe hain.