Whalesbook
Real Estate mein macha dhamal!
Sunno sab log, Godrej Properties aur Lodha Developers ne FY26 mein toh kamaal hi kar diya hai. Business development mein tagda jump dikhaya hai. Godrej Properties ne toh apna target do guna se bhi zyada badha diya hai, lagbhag ₹42,100 Crore ka business development kiya hai! Aur FY27 ke liye bhi same target rakha hai. Isse unhone 18 naye projects add kiye hain, jismein 33.32 million square feet ki saleable area hai. Ye unka ek saal mein sabse bada addition hai. Aur haan, Godrej ab joint ventures pe depend nahi kar raha, seedha outright ownership le raha hai, jo pehle nahi karta tha.
Lodha Developers ne toh pichhle saal ke guidance se 2.4 guna zyada, matlab ₹60,000 Crore se bhi zyada ka Gross Development Value (GDV) report kiya hai! Yeh FY22 se FY25 tak ke total BD ka 75% hai. Matlab, future demand par full bharosa hai!
Market ka mood change?
Aisa lag raha hai ki affordable housing ka scene thoda slow ho raha hai, par luxury aur premium segment mein demand mast chal rahi hai. Mumbai mein toh April mein property registrations 14 saal ka record tod gaye, mostly end-user demand ke karan. Par ab mid-ticket homes ki taraf zyada jhukav hai.
Godrej ne outright ownership ka rasta pakda hai, jabki Lodha broader BD mein hai. Godrej Properties ka net debt ₹6,414 Crore hai, aur Lodha Developers ka debt-to-equity ratio sirf 0.36 hai. Matlab dono companies financially strong dikh rahi hain.
Analyst kya bol rahe hain?
Valuation ki baat karein toh Godrej Properties ka P/E ratio 30.48 se 37.7 ke beech hai, jo Oberoi Realty (P/E ~25.5-35.53) aur Lodha Developers (P/E ~25.1-30.71) se zyada hai. Godrej Properties ki market cap lagbhag ₹57,223 Crore hai, wohi Lodha Developers ki market cap ₹90,699 Crore ke aas-paas hai.
Analysts ka view mostly positive hai, 'Buy' rating de rahe hain. Godrej Properties ke liye average target price ₹2,096.00 hai (16 analysts ke hisab se), aur Lodha Developers ke liye ₹1,219 (18 analysts ke hisab se). Par kuch analysts, jaise Investec, Godrej Properties ke valuation ko abhi zyada bata rahe hain, toh thoda caution dikha rahe hain.
Tension wali baat?
Itna sab kuch hone ke baad bhi kuch risks toh hain. Naye projects launch hone mein 2 se 4 saal lag sakte hain, jismein market ka scene badal sakta hai. Luxury segment mein zyada supply ho gaya toh problem ho sakti hai. Lodha Developers FY26 se FY28 tak 16% CAGR se pre-sales badhane ki ummeed kar raha hai, par isko revenue mein convert karna challenge hai.
Godrej Properties ki outright ownership strategy mein zyada paisa lagta hai, toh unhe project delivery mast karni padegi.
Aage ka kya scene hai?
FY27 ke liye Godrej Properties ka launch value ₹48,000 Crore aur booking value ₹39,000 Crore ka target hai. Unke paas FY26 mein ₹7,830 Crore ka operating cash flow bhi hai. Lodha Developers bhi growth expect kar raha hai.
Basically, analysts support kar rahe hain, par investors ko dheere dheere dekhna padega ki yeh companies apne projects ko sales mein kaise convert karti hain, kya luxury demand bani rehti hai, aur economic changes ko kaise handle karti hain.