Whalesbook
Prabhudas Lilladher ka Chalet Hotels par Verdict: BUY aur ₹994 Target!
Prabhudas Lilladher ne Chalet Hotels (CHALET.NS) par coverage start karte hue seedha 'BUY' rating aur ₹994 ka target price diya hai. Bhai, matlab unko lagta hai stock mein abhi aurdum hai. Unka kehna hai ki FY28 ke EBITDA par 18x multiple laga rahe hain, pehle 20x tha. Company ka market cap lagbhag ₹17,000 Crore hai. Aur haan, inka EBITDA margin 48.7% raha, jo unke 45.0% ke estimate se kaafi upar hai, thanks to strong leasing income.
Thoda Dip, Par Future Mast!
Abhi ek cheez jo thodi worrying hai, woh hai RevPAR mein 3.3% ki girawat aur occupancy ka 68.2% tak aa jaana. Iske reasons hain global conflicts jo travel ko affect kar rahe hain, hotel mein chal raha construction aur renovations. Par management ko lagta hai ye sab temporary hai.
Growth ka Khazana Kahan Se Aa Raha Hai?
Brokerage ko lagta hai future mein toh toofani growth aane wali hai. Management expect kar raha hai ki RevPAR mein 11.2% CAGR se growth hogi FY26-28 ke beech. Taj Delhi Q4FY27 tak khul jayega, aur Udaipur aur Hyderabad mein bhi naye hotels aa rahe hain. Leasing area bhi 0.9 million sq ft badhega. Isse sales mein 18% CAGR aur EBITDA mein 21% CAGR aa sakta hai FY26-28 ke beech mein. India ka hospitality sector bhi mast chal raha hai, sab keh rahe hain 'golden cycle' hai.
Risk Factor Ko Mat Bhoolna!
Par, bhai log, dhyan rakhna hai! Chalet ke stock mein pehle 177.0x P/E tak gaya hai, aur -70.4x tak bhi! Mumbai region se 50% revenue aata hai, toh asset concentration ka risk hai. Aur zyada capex hone wala hai, toh debt par nazar rakhna padegi. Rating agencies CRISIL aur ICRA ne AA-/Stable di hai, toh financial risk abhi comfortable hai.
Analyst Crowd Kya Keh Raha Hai?
Aur ek important baat, almost sabhi analysts jo is stock ko cover kar rahe hain, unka kehna hai ki 'Strong Buy' karo! Average target ₹1017.30 hai, matlab abhi ke price se 28% ka upside dikh raha hai. Toh, Prabhudas Lilladher ko lagta hai ki company apni pipeline execute karegi aur near-term problems ko manage kar legi.