Whalesbook
Monetary Policy ka theoretical flaw
2016 mein India ne officially inflation targeting shuru kiya tha taaki sab kuch clear rahe aur accountability ho. Lekin, ab is system par sawaal uth rahe hain kyunki yeh sirf price stability par focus karta hai.
Jab Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) 4% ka target rakhti hai, toh aisa lagta hai jaise currency ke fluctuations ko dekhe bina hi price stability achieve ho jayegi. Yeh approach galat hai kyunki Rupee ke depreciation se jo imported inflation badhti hai, woh seedha logon ki khareedne ki taakat par asar karti hai.
Subbarao ka kehna hai ki central bank monetary policy ko currency se alag kar raha hai, jo ki galat hai, khaas kar jab energy prices aur global capital flows itne volatile hain.
Currency vs Growth ka trade-off
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bolti hai ki woh Rupee ke girne mein interfere nahi karte aur yeh economic fundamentals ko reflect karta hai. Lekin, experts ka maanna hai ki yeh imported inflation par ek passive reaction hai.
Jahan kuch countries employment ya currency stability ko bhi dekhti hain, wahi India ka framework ek cheez ko prioritize karta hai, jiski wajah se actions mein der ho sakti hai.
Abhi trends bata rahe hain ki foreign investors paisa nikaal rahe hain aur crude oil import ka kharcha bhi zyada hai. Isse liquidity ki kami ho rahi hai, jise sirf interest rate badha kar control karna mushkil hai.
Forex reserves ko use karke is problem ko manage karna sirf temporary relief deta hai, jo dikhata hai ki ek single-focused mandate global trade mein kitna limited hai.
Domestic Investment ki mandi
Iske alawa, domestic private investment bhi bahut dheere-dheere badh raha hai. GDP growth ka main reason abhi bhi public spending hai, lekin private sector mein confidence ki kami low demand ka signal de rahi hai.
Subbarao ki analysis ke according, growth numbers aache hone ke baad bhi consumption mein koi bada jump nahi dikh raha hai, jo long-term investment ko rok raha hai.
Investors abhi hesitate kar rahe hain aur clear tax policies aur strong consumption ke signals ka wait kar rahe hain. Headline growth aur actual corporate investment ke beech ka difference ye bata raha hai ki foreign investors sirf tax rules nahi, balki India ke domestic consumers ki taakat bhi dekh rahe hain, khaas kar jab import costs badh rahe hain.
Rigid Policy ke Risks
Jab central bank Rupee ko support karne aur private investment ko girne se rokne ki koshish karti hai, toh kuch risks hain.
Critics ko dar hai ki agar inflation target ko exchange rate volatility se alag rakha gaya, toh RBI ko 'policy lag' face karna pad sakta hai. Iska matlab hai ki currency ke girne se jab supply-side inflation badhne lagegi, tab unko aur aggressive measures lene padenge.
Iske alawa, monetary policy aur trade-focused fiscal policy ke beech coordination ki kami rehne se economy aise shocks ke liye vulnerable ho sakti hai jinhe dono milkar bhi handle nahi kar paayeinge.
Jaise jaise India in economic challenges se deal kar raha hai, ek broader aur flexible mandate par debate badhti jayegi, khaas kar jab foreign exchange reserves se milne wala return kam hota jaa raha hai.