Whalesbook
Dekho, market mein ye upar neeche hota rehta hai (volatility), but abhi kya scene hai ki alag-alag sectors ek dum alag tarah se react kar rahe hain. Prashant Jain, jo 3P Investment Managers se hain, unka kehna hai ki India ab pehle se kam tel pe dependent hai, toh bahar ke bade events ka asar thoda kam time ke liye rahega. Matlab, general market dekhne se accha hai ki specific sector aur company par focus karein. Unhone ye bhi pointed out kiya hai ki Small aur Mid-Cap (SMID) stocks mein jo momentum dikh raha tha na, woh asli mein profit growth se nahi, balki speculation se aaya tha, toh woh zyada time nahi chalega.
Abhi kya hai, Nifty 50 ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio lagbhag 20.85 hai, jo large companies ke liye theek-thaak valuation dikhata hai. But iske andar alag alag sectors ka game dekho. IT sector ne toh recent mein 2020 ke baad sabse bura hafte dekha hai. Auto sector (Nifty Auto PE ~30.33) bhi global issues aur badhte costs se thoda pareshan hai. Dusri taraf, Banking sector, jiska P/E 14.79 hai, woh badhti yields aur working capital ki demand se fayda utha sakta hai. Prashant Jain khud financials ko prefer kar rahe hain. Pharma aur FMCG par zyada asar nahi dikh raha. Real estate ka haal mila-jula hai, mid-income housing theek hai, but luxury mein demand slow ho sakti hai costs badhne se.
Asli point ye hai ki SMID stocks ki jo zabardast bhagdaud hui thi na, woh sirf momentum ki wajah se thi, fundamentals ki nahi. Isliye yeh unsustainable hai. Nifty Midcap 100 ka P/E 36.5 ke aas paas hai, aur Nifty Smallcap 250 ka 29.67 ke aas paas. Jain ka kehna hai ki large caps toh 10-15% gir gaye hain, aur SMIDs toh aur bhi zyada. Ye long-term investors ke liye opportunity ban sakta hai. Wahi, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink ne warning di hai ki Middle East tensions ki wajah se oil $150 tak ja sakta hai, jisse global recession aa sakti hai. Agar inflation 3-5% tak ho toh market returns achhe milte hain, but high inflation company margins ko dabati hai, especially jinke paas pricing power kam hai.
India ab pehle se zyada resilient hai oil prices ke liye, kyuki GDP mein oil imports ka share kam ho gaya hai. Fir bhi, Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), Airlines, aur Cement jaisi companies high energy costs se direct affected hongi. Domestic institutional investors support kar rahe hain, foreign outflows ko balance karte hue. Market corrections ko absorb kar sakta hai, large caps ke liye 20% tak aur SMIDs ke liye usse bhi zyada, matlab valuation reset ho raha hai.
Toh future kya hai? Prashant Jain ko lagta hai ki Indian equities agle 3 saal mein around 15% annual returns de sakti hain. Yeh optimism earnings growth (12% annual over medium term) aur valuation mein improvement se aata hai, especially SMID stocks mein corrections ke baad. Unka manna hai ki large-cap stocks mein downside risk kam hai, aur current valuations long-term investors ke liye achha risk-reward offer karte hain. Matlab, smart stock selection aur fundamentals par focus karna padega, sirf speculative rally par nahi.