Whalesbook
India mein 4% Rule Kaun Kaam Nahi Karta?
Dekho, Western countries mein jo 4% withdrawal rule retirement ke liye chalta aa raha hai na, woh ab apne India ke liye ekdum galat saabit ho raha hai. Ye rule 30-year periods ke liye USA ke market data se bana tha, par apne desh ke halaat alag hain. Yahan returns kam hain aur tax bhi bahut zyada hai.
Low Returns aur High Tax Ka Dhamaka
India ke capital market mein ab pehle jaisa boom nahi raha. Equity mein jo returns pehle 15.5% tak mil jaate the, woh ab kam ho gaye hain. Debt markets ka haal toh aur bura hai, returns 11% se gir kar sirf 7.6% reh gaye hain. Aur upar se tax ka system bhi badal gaya hai. Pehle equity gains tax-free hote the aur debt mein indexation ka benefit milta tha, ab capital gains par tax hai aur debt par bhi slab rate se tax lag raha hai. Is sabke baad, agar aap 50:50 equity-debt portfolio bhi rakho toh 15.5% ki jagah sirf 8.5% post-tax return milega. Ye ummeed karna ki agle 30-50 saal tak double-digit returns milte rahenge, bilkul unrealistic hai. Kam returns ka matlab hai ki savings ko bachane ke liye withdrawal rate aur kam rakhna padega.
Har Kisi Ke Liye Apna Plan Chahiye
William Bengen, jinhone ye 4% rule banaya tha, khud maante hain ki ye universal nahi hai. Tax status aur asset allocation bahut matter karte hain. India mein log aksar conservative hote hain, unke portfolio mein 50% se kam equity hoti hai, toh growth kam ho jati hai. Upar se, income aur capital gains par tax, aur limited social security ke karan, retirees ko ya toh bahut bada corpus chahiye ya phir bahut kam withdraw karna padega.
Ek better strategy ye hai ki retirement goals ko realistic post-tax returns par base karein, jo shayad 8-9% ke aas paas ho. Withdrawal plans mein inflation aur healthcare ke liye bhi buffer zaroor rakhein. Jo log zyada conservative hain, woh toh inflation ke barabar return ka plan kar sakte hain. Agar thoda risk le sakte hain toh inflation se bas thoda zyada aim karein. Market ke changes ko dekhte hue har six months mein plan ko review karna bahut zaroori hai, taaki long-term security bani rahe.