Whalesbook
Global markets mein aaj kal Middle East mein chal rahe tensions ki wajah se kaafi gadbad machi hui hai. Khaas kar Strait of Hormuz jaise important oil routes par agar koi gadbad hui toh crude oil prices aur bhi bhadak sakte hain. Isse poori duniya mein inflation badhne ka dar hai aur India jaise import karne wale countries ke liye yeh badi chinta ki baat hai.
Isi wajah se, Indian markets bhi aaj thoda neeche gire hain. Sensex aur Nifty dono April 30, 2026 ko thoda down band hue hain. Upar se, foreign investors (FIIs) bhi lagataar paisa nikaal rahe hain, jisse market par aur pressure aa raha hai.
Par ek achhi khabar yeh hai ki small-cap stocks ne kamaal ka performance dikhaya hai. Nifty Smallcap 100 Index toh April 2026 mein kaafi achha bhaga hai. Lagta hai domestic investors ko umeed hai ki yeh tension jaldi khatam ho jayegi aur companies ke results par zyada asar nahi padega.
Agar hum valuations ki baat karein toh Nifty 50 ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio abhi around 20.9 hai aur Sensex ka around 21.1. Historicly dekha jaaye toh Nifty ka 10-year average P/E 24.79 ke aas-paas raha hai, toh abhi levels bahut zyada nahi hain, par March 2020 ke low se toh upar hi hain. Yaad hai na 2022 mein Russia-Ukraine war ya usse pehle bhi Middle East mein tensions se market mein volatility aayi thi. Agar Strait of Hormuz band ho gaya toh yeh 1970s ki energy crisis jaisa ho sakta hai, jo ki ek bahut bada risk hai.
Abhi sabse bada risk toh yeh hai ki West Asia mein conflicts badhte rahe toh crude oil prices high hi rahenge. Agar Strait of Hormuz par lamba disruption hua toh India ki economy ko badi maar padegi - inflation badhegi, rupee kamzor hoga aur companies ke profits kam ho jayenge. Yahi wajah hai ki HSBC ne bhi India ko 'Underweight' kar diya hai. Aur haan, US Federal Reserve bhi rates kam karne mein der kar sakta hai inflation ki wajah se, jo market ke liye aur uncertainty hai. FIIs ke paise nikaalne se bhi global sentiment dikh raha hai.
Analysts keh rahe hain ki abhi thoda caution barbatna chahiye. April 9, 2026 ko US-Iran ceasefire ki khabar se markets ne thodi relief li thi, par situation abhi bhi fragile hai. Sab dekhenge ki tensions kam hoti hain ya nahi aur uska inflation aur growth par kya asar padta hai. Kuch reports keh rahi hain ki market ka girna shayad khatam ho gaya hai aur April ke end tak recovery aa sakti hai. Par tab tak sabko apna portfolio diversify karke long-term view rakhna chahiye, kyunki short-term mein volatility toh aati rehti hai.