Whalesbook
Dekho, 2026 mein jo log home loan le rahe hain na, unke liye sabse badi tension interest rate ka upar neeche hona nahi, balki gharon ki badhti hui keemat aur unke income ke beech ka gap hai. Yeh asli affordability crisis hai.
RBI ne February 2026 mein Monetary Policy Committee ki meeting ke baad repo rate ko 5.25% par hi rakha hai, isliye home loan rates abhi stable chal rahe hain. Floating rates 7.10% se 8.50% ke range mein hain, aur public sector banks zyada competitive rates de rahe hain. Waise, fixed rates thode mehenge hain kyunki unme payment ki certainty milti hai. Lekin bhai, sabse bada panga toh property prices ka hai jo income se zyada bhag rahi hain. Isse EMI ka income se ratio critical level par pahunch gaya hai.
India ka housing finance market toh waise bhi badh raha hai. Urbanization, PMAY jaisi government schemes, aur badhti middle class ki wajah se yeh chal raha hai. GDP bhi ~7.3% ke aas paas rehne ka estimate hai FY26 ke liye. Par ab is growth ka bada hissa household borrowing se aa raha hai. Economic Survey FY26 ne bataya hai ki ab housing loans GDP ka 11% ho gaya hai, jo pehle sirf 8% tha.
Sabse risky baat ye hai ki household debt GDP ka 41.3% tak pahunch gaya hai. Dusre countries se kam hai, par jis speed se badh raha hai wo chinta ka vishay hai, especially jab income growth uneven hai aur savings kam ho rahi hain. Iska matlab hai ki log ab asset banane ke liye nahi, balki kharch karne ke gaps fill karne ke liye zyada borrow kar rahe hain. Aur toh aur, unsecured loans, jo secured loans se dugni speed se badh rahe hain, woh bhi logon ko aur vulnerable bana rahe hain.
Agar future mein rates badh gaye, toh EMI ka bojh ekdum se badh jayega. Aur agar income nahi badhi, toh loan defaults ka risk hai. Main point yehi hai ki property prices income se kaafi zyada tez bhagi hain. Isliye average logo ke liye ghar kharidna tough ho gaya hai, bhale hi mortgage rates stable hon. Yehi asli affordability crisis hai, fixed vs floating rate ki debate se zyada badi.
Aage chal kar 2026 mein bhi housing market badhega, demographics aur economic trends support kar rahe hain. Lekin property prices aur income ke beech ka gap wali affordability problem shayad bani rahegi. Short term mein lending rates stable rehne ki ummeed hai, par inflation ya global economic conditions badli toh outlook bhi badal sakta hai. Homeownership ko aur logon tak pahunchane ke liye, shayad government ko sirf interest rates nahi, balki property prices ko control karne aur affordable housing supply badhane par bhi focus karna hoga.