Whalesbook
Nomura ne kyu pakde ye 3 stocks?
Nomura ne Dr Reddy's ke liye ₹1,600 ka target set kiya hai, jo 26% tak ka gain de sakta hai. Cipla ka target ₹1,510 ( 17% upside) aur Crompton Greaves ka ₹335 ( 18% upside) rakha gaya hai. Ye sab figures potential growth aur market share gain par based hain.
Ab dekhte hain inke pichhe ka logic aur problems:
Dr Reddy's: Inke liye Semaglutide drug ka launch bahut important hai, jisse revenue double digit mein badh sakti hai. Gross margins 50-55% aur EBITDA margins 20% ke aas paas rehne ki umeed hai. Lekin bhai, Sun Pharma aur Cipla jaise competitors bhi isi race mein hain, aur originator Novo Nordisk se bhi takkar hai.
Cipla: US market mein recovery ka plan hai, jismein FY27 tak $1 billion revenue ka target hai. Iske liye 4 respiratory aur 1 peptide product launch karne hain. Lekin pichhle quarter mein FY26 EBITDA margin 21.0% aaya tha jo guidance se kam tha, aur US sales mein regulatory issues se bhi dikkat hui.
Crompton Greaves: FY27 mein 14% growth ki ummeed hai, especially Solar aur Wires jaise naye segments se. Par last quarter mein Q4 FY26 mein company ko ₹533.93 crore ka loss hua tha, jo ek badi chinta ki baat hai. Management ka kehna hai ki cost pressures aur naye category investments ke karan margins abhi tight hain, lekin FY28 tak normalize hone ki ummeed hai.
Risk Factor kya hain?
Crompton Greaves mein margins par dabav reh sakta hai, aur naye segments mein execution ek challenge hai. Dr Reddy's aur Cipla ke liye US FDA ke regulations aur jaldi product approvals crucial hain. India ke pharma sector mein bhi US market ki slow growth (FY2026 mein 3-5% predicted) dikat de sakti hai. Dr Reddy's ka Q4 FY26 net profit 86.2% gir gaya tha. Toh bhai, targets toh achhe hain par in sab challenges ko dhyan mein rakhna zaroori hai.