Whalesbook
Valuation ka funda kya hai?
Mirae Asset ne apna BSE India Defence ETF Fund of Fund launch kiya hai, par time thoda tricky hai. Government ne FY27 ke liye record ₹2.19 lakh crore defence budget rakha hai, yeh toh achhi baat hai. Lekin market ka mood badal gaya hai. Pehle log thematic funds mein bhari paisa laga rahe the, ab sab log diversification dekh rahe hain kyunki market volatile hai.
Sector mein kya chal raha hai?
Defence sector khud ki success se hi pareshaan hai. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited aur Bharat Electronics Limited jaise bade stocks itne expensive hain ki unhe lagaatar accha performance dena padega. Hindustan Aeronautics ka P/E ratio 32x ke aas-paas chal raha hai, jabki general market indices itne expensive nahi hain. Yahi problem hai passive funds ke saath: unhe index mein jo hai wahi khareedna padta hai, chahe woh overvalued hi kyun na ho. Sector ke order books toh record levels par hain, Project Kusha jaise bade projects bhi hain, par defence manufacturing mein time lagta hai, isliye revenue aane mein saalon lag jayenge.
Bear case: Risk kya hai?
Sirf growth story mat dekho, fund structure ke risks bhi samajho. Yeh Fund of Funds hai, matlab aapko FoF ka expense ratio alag se dena hoga aur niche wale ETF ka expense ratio alag. Long term mein returns kam ho sakte hain. Plus, defence sector policy par bahut depend karta hai. India mein jo 75% budget hai, woh domestic procurement ke liye hai. Agar government ne is budget ko priority dena band kar diya, toh sector ki health bigad sakti hai. Agar procurement mein late hua ya geopolitical tensions kam hue, toh yeh concentrated bet bahut jaldi gir sakta hai. NFO proceeds jaldi deploy karne ka regulatory pressure bhi fund managers par hai, jisse entry timing mushkil ho rahi hai.
Aage ka scene?
Analysts ko long-term 'Make in India' story par bharosa hai, par pichhle do saal ke stellar returns ko dekhkar future ke baare mein sure nahi ho sakte. Sabka kehna hai ki defence theme mein jo easy paisa tha woh toh ban gaya. Ab future performance iss baat par depend karega ki companies apne massive order backlogs ko cash mein convert kar paati hain ya nahi. Yeh abhi test hona baaki hai, khaas kar jab interest rates high hain aur global supply chains mein bhi gadbad hai.