Whalesbook
Aise kaise mila record? (The Numbers)
Company ka capital-light model bhi mast kaam kar raha hai. Ab 93% se zyada pipeline, yani 31,300 keys, managed ya asset-light basis par hain. Aur naye business jaise Qmin aur amã bhi 25% growth dikha kar ₹753 crore tak pahunch gaye hain. Ye dikhata hai ki Taj se leke Ginger tak, sab brands mein price achha mil raha hai.
Valuation Ka Hungama (The Worry)
Ab aate hain valuation pe, jo sabse bada topic hai. Stock filhal ₹661.30 ke aas paas hai aur company ka market cap ₹95,000 crore ke paas hai. Lekin iska P/E ratio 45x se 49x chal raha hai. Ye EIH Ltd. (Oberoi Hotels) ke 28x se 33x P/E se kaafi zyada hai. Matlab, market IHCL se bahut badi growth expect kar raha hai.
Sector Ka Outlook Aur Analysts Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Sector ka scene toh sahi lag raha hai. Analysts ka kehna hai ki hospitality sector FY26 mein 9-12% grow karega, kyunki domestic travel aur corporate bookings badh rahi hain. Isi wajah se kai brokers ne 'Buy' rating di hai aur target price ₹815 se ₹971 tak set kiye hain. ICRA ne toh credit rating bhi upgrade karke AAA+ kar diya hai, jo company ki financial stability ko dikhata hai.
Risk Bhi Toh Hai Na?
Par bhai, har chamakti cheez sona nahi hoti. Itne high P/E pe, agar growth thodi bhi kam hui ya market mein koi gadbad hui, toh stock gir sakta hai. IHCL ka current stock price pichhle saal 61% se 78% bhaga hai, toh ho sakta hai ki achhi khabar pehle se hi price mein include ho chuki ho. Company ka plan bhi bada ambitious hai - 2030 tak 700 se zyada hotels banane ka. FY27 mein hi 60 hotels (5,000 keys) kholne ka plan hai, jiske liye ₹1,100-₹1,300 crore ka capex lagega. Ye sab successful hone ke liye execution bohot strong hona chahiye.
Fir Bhi, Kya Hai Future?
Overall, brokers jaise Motilal Oswal aur Axis Securities abhi bhi 'Buy' rating de rahe hain, target ₹950-₹960 aur ₹900 ke aas paas hain. HSBC ne bhi target ₹971 kiya hai. Management bhi double-digit growth expect kar raha hai, 12-14% growth FY26 ke liye forecasting kar rahe hain. Company ke paas 254 hotels ki pipeline bhi ready hai.