Whalesbook
Analyst ka V-Mart par Focus
HDFC Securities ko V-Mart Retail mein kaafi potential dikh raha hai. Unka kehna hai ki company apne core stores se acchi sales generate kar rahi hai aur FY26 mein same-store-sales growth mid-to-high single digit mein rehne ka guidance hai. Plus, 'Unlimited' segment bhi ab sudhar raha hai, jahan abhi 18 naye stores add kiye gaye hain aur unit economics improve hokar EBITDAM 4-5% ho gaya hai, jo pehle 1-2% tha. Limeroad se losses bhi bahut kam hain. Aage chal kar FY26 mein 75 naye stores khulne ki bhi umeed hai.
Valuation Lag Raha Hai Attractive?
Stock pichhle kuch time mein 30% tak gira tha, par HDFC Securities ke hisaab se ab iska valuation attractive hai. Yeh 13x FY28 EV/EBITDA se kam aur 18x FY28 P/E se kam par trade ho raha hai. Analyst log expect kar rahe hain ki revenue 16% CAGR se badhega aur margin bhi thoda improve hoga. India ka retail market bhi bohot bada hai, aur 2030 tak $1.93 trillion ka hone wala hai. V-Mart Tier II aur III cities par focus kar raha hai, jahan organized retail badh raha hai. Yeh unhe DMart aur Trent jaise bade players se thoda alag karta hai, jo metro cities mein jyada active hain.
Challenges Aur Competition
Lekin sab kuch itna hi aasan nahi hai. Kuch valuations 30-37x P/E range mein hain, aur FY28 estimates par 21x tak jaa rahe hain, jo fragmentation aur competition ko dekhte hue thoda ambitious lag sakta hai. DMart ka sales per square foot aur inventory management kaafi strong hai, aur Trent ke paas bhi acche brands hain. V-Mart ka historical return on equity bhi kam raha hai, aur stock pichhle saal 30% girne ke saath BSE 100 index se 36% pichhe bhi raha hai. Analyst jo 40bps margin expansion expect kar rahe hain FY26-28 mein, woh operational improvements aur market share gain par depend karta hai.
Future Growth Ke Liye Kya Hai Plan?
V-Mart ka target hai store expansion continue karna. Motilal Oswal jaisa brokerage expect kar raha hai ki EBITDA margins FY28 tak 7.2% tak pahunch sakte hain. Iske liye V-Mart ko market mein tez rehna hoga, inventory acchi tarah manage karni hogi aur customers ko value dena hoga. Tier II/III cities mein success aur strong competitors se ladna hi asal game changer hoga. Brokerages generally positive hain aur target prices mein significant upside dikha rahe hain, par execution hi sabse important hoga.