Whalesbook
Election Jeet Ka Seedha Asar
Jabse West Bengal mein Bharatiya Janata Party ne badi jeet haasil ki hai, tab se railway wagon bananewali companies ke shares BSE par toofani raftaar se badh rahe hain. Jabki market seedha 0.30% neeche jaakar 77,038 par tha, tab bhi yeh stocks 13% tak upar bhaage. Elara Capital ke experts ka kehna hai ki yeh ek naye infra cycle ki shuruaat ho sakti hai, jahan sarkar desh mein industrialization aur infrastructure par kharcha badha sakti hai. Iska seedha fayda Jupiter Wagons, Texmaco Rail & Engineering, aur Titagarh Rail Systems jaise companies ko hoga.
Orders Kam, Lekin Companyyan Chalti Rahi
Titagarh Rail Systems, jo saal mein 12,000 wagons bana sakti hai, uske shares 13% tak badhe. Lekin, 31 December 2025 tak unka order book 77% passenger projects par focus kar raha tha, jaise ₹4,000 Cr ka Mumbai Metro Line 5 & 6 project. Freight wagons ke naye orders milna zaroori hai factories ko busy rakhne ke liye. Crisil Ratings ne company ko 'CRISIL AA-/Stable/CRISIL A1+' rating di hai, lekin supply ki problems par bhi dhyan dilaya hai.
Jupiter Wagons, jiski saal ki capacity 10,800 units hai, uske share 7% badhe. Crisil ne unhe bhi 'CRISIL AA-/Stable/CRISIL A1+' rating di hai. Lekin, fiscal 2026 ke pehle 9 mahino mein unka revenue 27% gir gaya tha, jo ₹2,136 Cr tha. Iska reason tha rail wheels ki kami jiske karan 35% kam deliveries hui. December 2025 tak unka total order ₹5,041 Cr tha, jo pehle saal ₹6,304 Cr tha. Freight wagons usme 69% hain.
Texmaco Rail & Engineering, jiski market value lagbhag ₹4,285 Cr hai aur P/E 28.54x ke aas-paas hai (30 April 2026 ko), uske bhi share 8% badhe. Fiscal 2026 ke pehle 9 mahino mein revenue bhi kam tha, aur Crisil ne yahan bhi supply issues ka zikr kiya hai.
Valuation Aur Experts Kya Kehte Hain?
Stock valuations kaafi alag hain. Jupiter Wagons ka P/E ratio 50-60x (April-May 2026 tak) bahut high hai. Texmaco Rail ka P/E 16x se 28.5x ke beech hai, jo Jupiter se kam hai. Titagarh Rail Systems ka P/E 43.36x hai, yeh bhi premium par hai par Jupiter se kam. Zyadatar analysts Titagarh buy karne ki salah de rahe hain, jinke price targets ₹971 tak ja sakte hain, aur kuch toh ₹1,214 ( 2026 tak) ka target bhi de rahe hain. Lekin Jupiter Wagons ko 'Neutral' rating mili hai aur uska average target ₹287 ke aas-paas hai.
Risks Aur Challenges Jo Nazar Andaaz Ho Rahe Hain?
Rail stocks mein itni tezi dekhkar shayad log bade operational issues ko nazarandaaz kar rahe hain. Rail wheels jaise important parts ki kami ne Jupiter Wagons aur Titagarh Rail Systems ke revenue ko fiscal 2026 mein affect kiya hai. Yeh supply issue bahut bada risk hai orders time par deliver karne mein. Jupiter Wagons ka order book kam ho raha hai, matlab unhe naye orders aur supply chain ko manage karna bahut zaroori hai. Aur Jupiter Wagons ka P/E ratio 50-60x dikhata hai ki stock price mein future ki perfection already priced in hai, jisme thodi si bhi galti stock ko neeche gira sakti hai. Agar deliveries delay hui ya naye orders nahi mile toh stock gir sakta hai.
Titagarh ka order book accha hai, par passenger projects par zyada focus aur freight wagons ki kam demand ek weakness ho sakti hai. Crisil ne bhi Jupiter ke liye ek risk bataya hai ki woh Indian Railways par bahut dependent hai, aur government contracts kam-zyada ho sakte hain. Texmaco ke liye bhi analysts ke views mix hain.